TIP611: The Bear Case for China w/ Kyle Bass

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Education, Investing, Business

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 1 March 2024

⏱️ 65 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s episode, Clay chats with Kyle Bass, the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management. Hayman’s first major success came from effectively shorting the housing market in 2008, and Kyle was profiled in Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short. After seeing Chinese stocks drop 20% over the past year, I invited Kyle back onto the show because he has been sounding the alarm bells for years on a market correction in Chinese markets. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - Why China is potentially preparing to invade Taiwan. 06:59 - How China has been restricting data and information flow to foreigners. 09:16 - Major military, mainland, and legal actions the CCP has taken in the past few years. 19:55 - Why foreign direct investment to China has collapsed in recent years. 25:53 - Potential sanctions the US may implement if China invades Taiwan. 33:38 - What Kyle is seeing in the Chinese real estate market. 39:33 - Whether he sees the crisis in Chinese affecting other markets globally. 47:10 - Why he believes the Fed is out of touch with reality. 54:48 - How Kyle is positioned as an investor today. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Hayman Capital Management’s website. Conservation Equity Management’s website. Related Episode: TIP396: China and the Macro Impact w/ Kyle Bass | YouTube Video. Follow Kyle on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at [email protected]. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Fidelity NetSuite Toyota TurboTax Wise NerdWallet Linkedin Marketing Solutions Babbel Shopify Fundrise Vacasa HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP.
0:02.8	On today's episode, I'm joined by Kyle Bass to discuss what is happening in China.
0:07.8	Kyle is the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management and the founder and CEO of Conservation Equity Management.
0:14.6	Kyle foresaw the US housing bubble in 2008 as he was effectively short
0:18.9	the market which led to him being profiled in Michael Lewis's book
0:22.3	The Big Short.
0:23.7	After seeing Chinese stocks drop by over 20% over the past year, I invited Kyle back onto the show
0:29.3	because he has been sounding the alarm bells for years on a market correction to come in Chinese markets.
0:35.0	During this chat, Kyle and I cover why China is potentially preparing to invade Taiwan,
0:40.0	how China has been restricting data and information flow to foreigners, major military,
0:45.0	mainland and legal actions the CCP has taken in the past few years, why foreign direct investment
0:50.6	to China has collapsed by well over 80%. What Kyle is seeing in the
0:55.1	Chinese real estate market, whether he sees the crisis in China affecting other
0:59.0	markets globally, why he believes the Federal Reserve is totally out of touch with reality, how Kyle is positioned today as an investor and much more.
1:08.0	Many people have been bullish on Chinese stocks due to their valuations that appear to be cheap, but Kyle brings a different viewpoint
1:14.7	as he believes that China's economic problems are just beginning.
1:18.6	With that, I bring you today's chat with Kyle Bass. Bass. Celebrating 10 years and more than 150 million downloads.
1:29.0	You are listening to the Investors Podcast Network.
1:32.0	Since 2014, we studied the financial markets
1:35.3	and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most. We keep you
1:39.6	informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host host Clay Fink and today I welcome
1:58.2	back the founder of Hayman Capital Management, Kyle Bass. Kyle such a pleasure to have you back on the show.
	...

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