TIP595: Stock Market History & The AI Bubble w/ Jamie Catherwood

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Education, Investing, Business

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 29 December 2023

⏱️ 61 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by financial history expert, Jamie Catherwood, to discuss market forecasting, interest rates, and the efficiency of markets from a historical perspective. Jamie Catherwood is a Client Portfolio Specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and also the author of the popular blog, Investor Amnesia. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:35 - Why we shouldn’t try to make market forecasts. 04:56 - Psychological biases that play into why investors are prone to forecast markets. 08:47 - How we can determine which market forecasts are worth putting weight on. 17:10 - Jamie’s thoughts on the AI craze of 2023. 25:52 - Jamie’s take on where interest rates may head from here. 30:23 - Broader consequences of zero percent interest rates and loose monetary policy. 33:59 - Historical examples of governments restructuring their debt. 40:47 - How investor access to information has impacted the efficiency of markets. 47:53 - Jamie’s favorite book from 2023. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at [email protected]. Related Episode: TIP505: The Price of Time w/ Edward Chancellor | Youtube Video. Jamie’s blog: Investor Amnesia. Jamie’s Sunday Reads Blog. Marc Andreeson’s article: Why Software Is Eating the World. Books mentioned: Seeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin, Confusion de Confusiones by Josef De La Vega, The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor, and Taming the Street by Diana B. Henriques. Follow Jamie on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Efani Salesforce Toyota Vanta Babbel Shopify Notion AI NetSuite Noble Gold Investments Ka'Chava HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP.
0:03.0	On today's show, I'm joined by financial history expert Jamie Catharwood
0:07.0	to discuss market forecasting, interest rates, and the efficiency of markets from a historical perspective.
0:12.0	Jamie Catharwood is a client portfolio specialist. of markets from a historical perspective.
0:12.6	Jamie Catharwood is a client portfolio specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management
0:17.1	and also the author of the popular blog Investor Amnesia.
0:20.8	During this episode, Jamie and I chat about why history suggests we shouldn't rely on
0:25.0	market forecasts psychological biases that play into why investors are prone to
0:29.5	market forecasting Jamie's thoughts on the AI craze of 2023 and where interest rates may head from here.
0:36.0	Broader consequences of 0% interest rates and loose monetary policy, historical examples
0:41.2	of governments restructuring their debt,
0:43.2	how investor access to information has impacted the efficiency of markets,
0:47.4	Jamie's favorite history book from 2023, and much more.
0:51.0	We always enjoy bringing Jamie on the show as he brings a wealth of historical information
0:55.2	and how it applies to today's markets. With that, I hope you enjoy today's discussion with fan
1:00.3	favorite Jamie Catharwood. You are listening to The Investors Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self-made billionaires the most.
1:14.2	We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Welcome to the investors podcast. I'm your host Clay Fink and today we bring
1:29.2	back Jamie Catharwood. Jamie such a pleasure to have you back. Thank you so much for having me on.
1:35.5	Jamie, you've recently had a write-up on forecasting and this write-up was actually quite timely.
1:40.5	Going into 2023, I think just about everyone saw trouble ahead.
1:45.0	And yet here we are speaking in late December.
1:47.5	The S&P 500's up around 22% on the year.
	...

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