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On The Market

This Small Group is Driving the Entire Economy (and They’re About to Stop)

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, News, Education, Business

4.8858 Ratings

🗓️ 30 September 2025

⏱️ 50 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Is a recession really coming, or is this the new normal for the housing market? Dave Meyer and J Scott unpack how post-2008 shifts, record debt and money printing, tariffs, and AI are changing the rules, then connect inflation and the labor market to mortgage rates and interest rates so you can gauge what moves them next. You will get a risk-off playbook for today’s deals, including conservative underwriting, assuming flatter rents and higher vacancy, buying at today’s rates, and favoring fixed-rate debt, plus why single-family housing prices are usually resilient outside of severe shocks. Their housing market prediction and forecast: expect mostly stable home prices with modest moves while mortgage rates hover near current levels, with bigger swings only if jobs crack hard or inflation reaccelerates. Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-360   Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

These days, with so much going on in the headlines and in the news, it is hard to keep track

0:06.8

of what is going on.

0:08.0

And that's even for someone like me who spends all day obsessively updating the news and

0:13.1

tracking these things.

0:14.5

And sometimes I just need someone else who loves the economy and looking at data as much

0:20.4

to bounce some things off of and to

0:22.5

learn from myself. And today, we are bringing on the one and only Jay Scott to help us unpack

0:29.8

what is going on at the economy, the housing market, and most importantly, what we're all supposed

0:34.8

to do with our investing portfolios based on all of the

0:38.3

information we're receiving each and every day. In this episode, we're going to cover inflation.

0:44.9

We'll cover tariffs. We'll cover the Federal Reserve and we'll cover how the residential and the

0:49.7

commercial real estate markets may react to everything going on right now. If you are nervous, if you

0:56.2

are wondering what to do next, this is an episode you're definitely going to want to listen to.

1:00.9

Let's bring on Jay.

1:07.1

Jay, Scott, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks for coming back once more. Hey, appreciate you

1:12.7

having me. How are you doing, Dave? Honestly, confused about the economy, just trying to figure

1:18.8

out what's going on around here. So I'm happy you're here. I'm not sure I can help,

1:22.9

but I'll do my best. It at least helps to have someone to bounce some ideas off of, you know, to have a conversation

1:28.9

about because the reality is, as Jay said, no one really knows. But it is helpful to talk to someone

1:33.8

else who I think follows this stuff as obsessively, if not more obsessively than I do.

1:39.8

And I think it's not just that nobody knows. I mean, I think it's safe to say, like, no matter when we're having this discussion, whether it's now a year ago, five years ago, 20 years ago, nobody really knows for certain. But there's just so much that's happened over the last, we can say the last couple years, but the reality is since 2008, that has kind of caused the economy to work in ways that aren't necessarily

2:04.5

historically accurate. The government has done a lot. The Federal Reserve has done a lot.

...

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