The U.S. Economy: Have we reached a boiling point?

Unf*cking The Republic

UNFTR Media

Government, News, Politics

4.9 • 683 Ratings

🗓️ 14 December 2024

⏱️ 45 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Are we heading into a recession? Did we ever really come out of the last one? Do market fundamentals matter anymore? How did Democrats miss so badly on the economy, leading to the re-election of Donald Trump? Is capitalism collapsing? It’s difficult to get a proper read of the U.S. economy. It’s a giant, complex juggernaut that both relies on global markets and holds them all together. There is no unifying economic or political theory to provide clarity as the biggest economy in world history continues to navigate uncharted territory. Let’s talk about it.

Chapters

Intro: 00:00:34

The Stock Market Is Not the Economy: 00:02:25

The U.S. Economy is the Global Economy: 00:04:24

Market Based Economies are Cyclical: 00:05:25

The Rate of Change in the Labor Market is Faster Today: 00:07:52

Inequality is a Condition of Capitalism: 00:11:26

Sentiment is Just as Powerful as Any Data Point: 00:13:32

The Single Biggest Economic Force is Greed: 00:14:02

Cycle Trends: 00:18:40

Enter Trump: 00:31:54

Post Show Musings: 00:36:47

Outro: 00:42:31

Resources

St. Louis Fed: Labor Force Participation Rate

St. Louis Fed: Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs.

Investopedia: Average Retirement Savings by Age: How Do You Compare?

Trading Economics: United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Federal Reserve Bank Of New York: Household Debt and Credit Report

Education Data: Student Loan Debt Statistics [2024]: Average + Total Debt

Guru Focus: S&P 500 PE Ratio Charts, Data

Oil Price: OPEC+ May Be Facing Long-Term Production Cuts

Center for American Progress: Project 2025’s Tax Plan Would Raise Taxes on the Middle Class and Cut Taxes for the Wealthy

Book Love

John Kenneth Galbraith: The Affluent Society

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Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.

Podcast art description: Image of the US Constitution ripped in the middle revealing white text on a blue background that says, "Unf*cking the Republic."

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Transcript

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0:00.0	This is the story of a political pundit who looked at the world around him and just said, fuck it.
0:07.8	Gives the middle finger to authority and says, kiss my ass.
0:11.6	But instead of a revolution, he started a podcast.
0:15.4	Just what the world needs.
0:17.6	He started a podcast.
0:19.1	Another basic white guy who started a podcast. Another basic white guy.
0:21.3	But it's fun because he curses.
0:25.3	All through the podcast.
0:26.8	On the fucking the republic.
0:29.1	It's a motherfucking podcast.
0:34.4	Hey on fuckers.
0:36.0	So I've been working this one out over the past couple of newsletters, in show notes,
0:40.7	been digging around in some old published works, and have been having a few conversations with
0:44.7	people that I trust on such matters. Today, I want to share some macro thoughts on the economy
0:50.1	and some concerning signs that I see coming on the eve of another Trump administration.
0:55.1	So here's how we'll break it down.
0:56.7	We'll start by level setting with some assumptions, or assertions, really, points that we kind of
1:01.4	need to agree on to move forward.
1:03.6	We'll touch briefly on the global economic system and what makes the world go around.
1:07.8	Then we'll dig into the objective economic metrics that I personally find
1:11.8	concerning. Finally, we'll end on what could happen if Trump follows through on his economic
1:16.8	policies. You ready? Let's go. UNFTR. So here are some assertions to center our discussion.
	...

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