If you've listened to what lawmakers and journalists and foreign policy are talking

about lately, one theme is abundantly clear.

The rhetoric between China and the US is rising to an incredibly tense level, alarmingly

fast.

There's an American military buildup in the Pacific right now that's on a scale we haven't

seen there since World War II.

So, what would actually happen if the US were to go to war with China?

Researchers at one think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, developed

a war game.

They looked at what might happen if China and the US went to war over Taiwan in 2026.

They ran their scenario 24 times and in every iteration they conducted, China's first

attack on US soil was bombing Guam, every single time, Guam.

My name is Sarah Topal and I'm a contributing writer for the New York Times magazine.

Guam is the biggest and southernmost island of the Northern Mariana Island chain in the

Western Pacific Ocean.

What's interesting about Guam is that it's an unincorporated US territory, which means

the island is a possession of the United States, but not an equal member of the Union.

In a series of Supreme Court cases, called the Insular Cases, the court decided that certain

US territories were, quote, inhabited by alien races, unquote.

So the full constitution didn't have to apply there.

It also means that the 154,000 civilians who reside on Guam can't vote for president.

They also don't have a senator and they have just one non-voting member of the house.

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