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The Peel with Turner Novak

The State of AI: Rise of Reasoning, Surge in Chinese Open Source, Sovereign AI , How to Invest in AI Today | Nathan Benaich, Air Street Capital

The Peel with Turner Novak

Turner Novak

Technology

4.611 Ratings

🗓️ 22 January 2026

⏱️ 143 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Nathan Benaich is the founder of Air Street Capital and author of the State of AI report. On its eighth year, the report is a year-long effort on the biggest things happening in AI, across research, industry, politics, and safety.

This episode covers the biggest takeaways from the latest report, like the rise in reasoning, the surge in China’s open source models, where AI is working in practice, the rise of sovereign AI, where he thinks value will actually accrue over the long-term, if we’re in an AI bubble, and how he’s investing in AI today at Air Street.

Thanks to Nico at Adjacent and Dan at Michigan for helping brainstorm topics for Nathan.


Try Numeral, the end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance: ⁠https://www.numeral.com⁠

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Timestamps:

(3:39) State of AI 2025

(6:22) Takeaway #1: Reasoning & tool calling

(13:01) Takeaway #2: Rise of Chinese open source

(15:25) Open vs closed source models

(26:46) Takeaway #3: AI revenue is real

(27:51) Takeaway #4: Sovereign AI

(36:44) Are we in an AI bubble?

(59:23) Starting Air Street Capital

(1:05:18) Raising Fund 1

(1:16:20) Air Street portfolio strategy

(1:25:15) When and who Nathan decides to invest

(1:35:04) How important are AI benchmarks?

(1:39:31) When to train your own models

(1:45:56) Rise of European defense tech

(2:01:43) Nathan’s personal AI stack

(2:07:32) Is niching down too risky?

(2:16:12) Nadal vs Federer


Referenced

State of AI Report: https://www.stateof.ai

The Thinking Game Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d95J8yzvjbQ

V7: https://www.v7labs.com


Follow NathanTwitter: https://x.com/nathanbenaichLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathanbenaich


Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak


Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Peel. I'm your host, Turner Novak, founder of Banana Capital.

0:07.0

Today's guest is Nathan Benich, founder of Air Street Capital, and author of the State of

0:11.4

of AI Report. Nathan has been writing the State of AI for eight years. It's a year-long effort

0:16.4

on the biggest things happening in AI every year across research, industry, politics, and safety.

0:21.4

We spend the next two hours talking about the biggest takeaways from his latest report,

0:25.0

including the rise of reasoning, the surge in China's open source models, where AI is working in

0:30.5

practice, the rise of sovereign AI, where he thinks value will actually accrue over the long term,

0:36.0

if for an AI bubble or not, and how he's

0:38.0

investing today at Air Street.

0:39.6

A quick thank you to Nico at Adjacent and Dan at the University of Michigan for helping

0:43.3

brainstorm topics for Nathan.

0:44.9

A reminder, I publish two episodes of the Peel every week, exploring the world's greatest startup

0:49.1

stories just like this one.

0:50.9

Check with the back catalog of over 100 episodes, including recent conversations

0:54.2

with Marcelo Lever, co-founder of European Unicorn Remote, and Kevin Hartz, co-founder of Eventbrite and Seed Investor in PayPal. Tune in over the next few weeks for guests like Gary Tan at YC, Chathen Poudin, Pouda, Benchmark, Jake Stotch at Serval, and DuoSec, and Duo GoSecurity co-founders, Doug Song and John Overhood.

1:11.3

Let's talk to Nathan after a quick word from numeral and flanks. Gix Dodge at Serval and Duo Security co-founders, Doug Song and John Overhood.

1:14.2

Let's talk to Nathan after a quick word from Numeril and Flex.

1:17.5

This episode is brought to you by Numerl.

1:22.6

Numeril is the fastest, easiest way to stay compliant with U.S. Sales Tax and Global VAT. It's easy to set up, and they automatically handle all registrations, ongoing filings,

1:44.8

and their API provides sales tax rates wherever you need them with all the integrations you need. Numerals supports over 2,000 customers in both the U.S. and globally, and they pride themselves on white-glove, high-touch customer service. Plus, they guarantee their work, and they'll cover the difference if they mess anything up. They're fresh off of fundraise,

1:47.3

closing a $35 million series B from Mayfield,

1:50.3

which they're going to reinvest into building an even better product.

...

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