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🗓️ 13 February 2025
⏱️ 11 minutes
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0:00.0 | We're hosting our first Coffee House Shots live event of 2025 on the 26th of February at the |
0:04.8 | Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Michael Gove, Katie Bulls, Kate Andrews and very special guests, |
0:10.7 | Jonathan Ashworth and Robert Jenrick for a look to the year ahead. They'll be tackling such |
0:15.3 | questions as, can the Chancellor reframe the budget in her first spring statement? What will |
0:19.8 | Trump's first 100 days look like? And will reform cause and upset at the local elections? For tickets, |
0:25.4 | go to spectator.co.com.uk forward slash coffeehouse live. |
0:33.5 | Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast. I'm Oskredminton |
0:38.8 | and I'm joined today by Michael Simmons and Kate Andrews. And today is the Chancellor Rachel |
0:44.2 | Reeves's birthday. But Kate, is there much cause for celebration? Well, I personally hope |
0:50.0 | she's having a nice day celebrating her birthday. The economic news today won't make her cheer. |
0:57.2 | Look, it's better than it could have been. The economy grew, it did not contract, in the fourth |
1:02.6 | quarter of last year, by 0.1%. And that is thanks to the December figures, which were higher than |
1:09.9 | expected. Market consensus is that the economy |
1:13.0 | would grow by 0.1% in December and it actually grew by 0.4%. That is where the good news stops, |
1:19.9 | because this is the first estimate. It is possible that in the coming months, we find out that |
1:26.3 | the UK actually had no growth or even had a small |
1:29.3 | contraction in Q4. The government will be hoping that there is no revision. Sometimes there |
1:34.7 | isn't. But either way, you look at this 0.1% increase or contraction. This is a stagnant economy. |
1:41.7 | And nothing is really changing. And it reminds me of 2023 when the government just could not get growth going. I think one of the difficulties |
1:49.6 | for this government is that we did start to see some improvement in the first half of 2024. |
1:54.4 | And after they took over, that is when things really started to stagnate again. |
1:59.7 | Whether or not you meet the technical definition of recession. |
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