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KQED's Forum

The Science (and Art) of Election Polling

KQED's Forum

KQED

Politics, News, News Commentary

4.6 • 656 Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2020

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Major recent polls suggest that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump by a decisive margin in next week's election. A simulation by FiveThirtyEight shows Biden winning 88 times in 100, and a model from The Economist puts Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college at 95%. But for the obsessive poll watchers who in 2016 were shocked by Trump's win, today's numbers are fraught. We'll talk about how election polls are constructed, how to interpret them and how methodologies have changed since 2016. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:32.2

From KQEDP from KQED Public Radio in San Francisco, I'm Mina Kim.

0:49.3

Coming up on forum, with six days to Election Day, most recent polls are showing former Vice President Joe Biden favored to win the presidency.

0:58.6

But at this time four years ago, most polls also showed Hillary Clinton poised to beat Donald Trump.

1:04.8

So what went wrong in 2016? And can the polls be trusted this time?

1:10.0

A panel of experts is here to explain polling methods and analysis,

1:13.7

lessons learned from the last presidential election,

1:16.6

and to take your questions.

1:45.4

Thank you. This is Forum. I'm Mina Kim. Major recent polls suggest Joe Biden will defeat President Trump by a decisive margin in next week's election. A simulation by 538 shows Biden winning 88 times in 100, and a model from the economist puts Biden's chances

1:51.7

of winning the electoral college at 95%. But for the obsessive poll watchers, who in 2016 were

1:59.2

shocked by Trump's win, today's numbers are fraught.

2:03.3

Is this you? Was your confidence in polling shaken four years ago? In this hour, we'll talk about

2:08.4

how election polls are constructed, how to interpret them, and how polling methods have changed

2:13.3

since 2016. We're joined by Jane Jun, Professor of Political Science at USC. She's an expert on

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