4.6 • 29.8K Ratings
🗓️ 22 February 2025
⏱️ 29 minutes
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0:00.0 | This is Planet Money from NPR. |
0:06.0 | In the mid-1990s, a group of people thought they'd finally achieved this dream that had existed since the dawn of financial markets. |
0:14.2 | They'd figured out how to take risk. |
0:16.7 | They built a model that could help them generate great investment returns consistently over time. |
0:23.5 | Perhaps unsurprisingly, they were math nerds. |
0:26.4 | We were mostly cut from the same cloth. |
0:29.2 | This is Victor Hagani. He was the youngest of the group. |
0:32.2 | Like we were all, you know, kind of game-playing, geeky kind of people. And we just really felt attracted to the |
0:42.2 | same kinds of problem solving and the same kinds of thought processes and intellectual challenges. |
0:48.3 | Victor was part of this new crew of traders on Wall Street, where before people had made investment decisions based on |
0:56.2 | what they thought about a company's prospects or maybe just based on a hunch, these guys |
1:01.9 | used data, lots of data, and computers. |
1:05.7 | It was math over emotions. Risk taking had always been an art, but now they could turn risk taking into a science. |
1:12.9 | To a large extent, you can get rid of certain risks, but if you're going to make money, |
1:17.7 | then you have to be taking risk. |
1:19.4 | Victor had gone from working at an investment bank to getting hired into this elite, illustrious group, |
1:25.3 | a group that included Myron Scholes and Bob Merton, the guys who'd |
1:29.4 | figured out how to mathematically derive prices for stock options, bets on a stock's future |
1:34.9 | price. |
1:35.9 | For this work, Myron Scholes and Bob Martin would go on to win a Nobel Prize in economics. |
1:41.0 | Myron and Bob's model provided them with like this X-ray vision. They could spot all |
1:46.5 | these discrepancies in the market, where what the price should be didn't quite match what the |
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