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CNBC's "Fast Money"

The Real Recession Indicator, and What Backwardation Means for Energy Stocks 8/4/22

CNBC's "Fast Money"

CNBC

Investing, News, Business

3.91.3K Ratings

🗓️ 4 August 2022

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

All eyes are on tomorrow’s jobs report, but one of our traders says it’s housing we should watch for the true sign of whether or not we’re in a recession. We break down what that sector is saying and what it means for the market. Plus oil futures are in backwardation, but is that good or bad for the sector? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Right now on fast, another day, another big slate of earnings, Zillow, Warner Brothers,

0:06.0

Lyft, and more all in a move after their latest reports were breaking down the numbers

0:09.8

and bringing you the trades. Plus looking backwards, the big trend playing out in the oil markets

0:15.2

right now and what that says about where energy stocks are going from here. And we're keeping

0:20.1

our eyes on a big shareholder vote at Tesla. Investors weighing in on one of them on the

0:25.0

proposed three-for-one stock split will be watching the vote and bringing you the headlines.

0:29.2

I'm Courtney Reagan in this evening. Formally, this is Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq

0:33.4

Market site in the heart of Times Square. On the desk tonight, we have Bono and Eisen,

0:37.9

Karen Feiernerman, Guy Dommie, and Tim Seymour. They all came to play. And we are going to start

0:43.6

to the countdown to the July jobs report. The street looking for more than 250,000 new payrolls

0:48.4

to be added. A bit of a slowdown from May. But one of our traders says there's actually a different

0:53.9

sector. We should be paying attention to housing. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level

0:59.3

since April and mortgage apps rose for the first time in five weeks. Bono and you say this is where

1:05.2

we should be looking for hints of whether we're in a recession or not. Why this and not so much

1:10.3

payrolls when we pay so much attention to that in the face of high inflation, but still strong

1:15.1

employment? Well, they're not mutually exclusive. We've got two eyes. So put one on each ball here.

1:20.4

And so the jobs number is going to be incredibly important because it speaks to

1:24.5

consumers' ability to pay for mortgages and service debt at a higher level. But if you kind of

1:29.4

look at a few data points, and I have a few of them for you here, decelerating growth around

1:33.2

20% to 13% in home price appreciation, declining existing home sales, bank for America reported

1:39.9

Q2 residential mortgage rates were down 30%. And so you add all that up and the bulls will say,

1:45.8

listen, we've got constraints supply. And so home prices aren't going to crater. And I'm not

...

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