The Real Recession Indicator, and What Backwardation Means for Energy Stocks 8/4/22
CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC
3.9 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 4 August 2022
⏱️ 44 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Right now on fast, another day, another big slate of earnings, Zillow, Warner Brothers, |
| 0:06.0 | Lyft, and more all in a move after their latest reports were breaking down the numbers |
| 0:09.8 | and bringing you the trades. Plus looking backwards, the big trend playing out in the oil markets |
| 0:15.2 | right now and what that says about where energy stocks are going from here. And we're keeping |
| 0:20.1 | our eyes on a big shareholder vote at Tesla. Investors weighing in on one of them on the |
| 0:25.0 | proposed three-for-one stock split will be watching the vote and bringing you the headlines. |
| 0:29.2 | I'm Courtney Reagan in this evening. Formally, this is Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq |
| 0:33.4 | Market site in the heart of Times Square. On the desk tonight, we have Bono and Eisen, |
| 0:37.9 | Karen Feiernerman, Guy Dommie, and Tim Seymour. They all came to play. And we are going to start |
| 0:43.6 | to the countdown to the July jobs report. The street looking for more than 250,000 new payrolls |
| 0:48.4 | to be added. A bit of a slowdown from May. But one of our traders says there's actually a different |
| 0:53.9 | sector. We should be paying attention to housing. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level |
| 0:59.3 | since April and mortgage apps rose for the first time in five weeks. Bono and you say this is where |
| 1:05.2 | we should be looking for hints of whether we're in a recession or not. Why this and not so much |
| 1:10.3 | payrolls when we pay so much attention to that in the face of high inflation, but still strong |
| 1:15.1 | employment? Well, they're not mutually exclusive. We've got two eyes. So put one on each ball here. |
| 1:20.4 | And so the jobs number is going to be incredibly important because it speaks to |
| 1:24.5 | consumers' ability to pay for mortgages and service debt at a higher level. But if you kind of |
| 1:29.4 | look at a few data points, and I have a few of them for you here, decelerating growth around |
| 1:33.2 | 20% to 13% in home price appreciation, declining existing home sales, bank for America reported |
| 1:39.9 | Q2 residential mortgage rates were down 30%. And so you add all that up and the bulls will say, |
| 1:45.8 | listen, we've got constraints supply. And so home prices aren't going to crater. And I'm not |
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