The Real Pain From Rate Hikes May Still Be on the Way

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 28 September 2023

⏱️ 53 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Federal Reserve has hiked rates in rapid fashion, yet the evidence of their impact is scarce. Inflation is still hot (though it has come down quite a bit.) The unemployment rate remains very low. And economic growth appears to be robust. So does this mean that higher rates aren't significant? Or could it be that their impact has simply yet to be felt, and that it's still coming. On this episode, our guest argues the latter case that due to lags, we really haven't felt the pain from rate hikes yet. Julia Coronado, is the founder, CEO and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, as well as a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. She argues that we really haven't felt the credit effects yet from higher rates, but that they're on the way. In particular, we discuss the delayed impact on commercial real estate and other areas of the economy where debt may have been termed out, but will eventually need refinancing.

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0:00.0	As of 9-1-20-23, you may earn a 5.5% annualized yield with six-month T-bills of held to maturity.
0:06.4	But who's got time to purchase U.S. Treasuries? Doesn't that involve going to a bank?
0:10.0	Or navigating a government website that looks like it was designed in 1996?
0:13.6	Turns out, you can go to public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds,
0:17.5	and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields we've seen since the year 2000.
0:21.2	Visit public.com-slash-t-build-podcast to get started.
0:24.9	This is a paid endorsement by public.com.
0:27.2	Fees and conditions apply. Treasury accounts at public.com or through Gico Securities Inc.
0:31.5	Member Finra and SIPC. Not FDIC-insured? No bank guarantee.
0:35.2	May lose value. Full disclosures can be found at www.public.com-slash-t-build-podcast.
0:57.4	Hello and welcome to another episode of the AdLots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
1:26.5	I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, we've been on the road a lot lately.
1:29.6	I know. It's been non-stop trips. Let's see, we did Jackson Hole and then we went to California
1:35.9	at Huntington Beach. Now we're in Austin, Texas. You're hometown.
1:39.8	Have you enjoyed Austin so far? I love it. I mean, I'm not going to lie.
1:44.0	Large parts of it do remind me of Dallas, but controversial opinion,
1:49.6	but it has its own thing going to, like, amazing bars, restaurants, shops.
1:55.2	We went cowboy boot shopping at Allen Boots. We've had some amazing text
1:59.8	mix. Really excellent barbecue at Terry Blacks. It's been good.
2:04.2	Yeah, we were in Jackson Hole. We did a lot of episodes in Jackson Hole.
2:07.7	But a lot of them were sort of like these sort of like longer running like academic
2:12.4	questions that a lot of the episodes that we did. We didn't really do too much there.
	...

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