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Epic Real Estate Investing

The Real Housing Crash Isn’t Where You Think | Rod Khleif

Epic Real Estate Investing

Matt Theriault

Education, Business, Investing, How To

4.8955 Ratings

🗓️ 13 September 2025

⏱️ 41 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

🤝 Community: https://TheEscape.club 👉 Newsletter: https://ShadowCapitalBrief.com The next 2008? It won’t start where you think. Everybody’s betting on single-family crashing. But the real housing market storm is building somewhere else entirely... $500 billion of it. Let me show you where ground zero is. Connect with today's guest, Rod Khleif, at https://RodsLinks.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Get up, you puss.

0:01.1

50 million shmillion.

0:02.3

Go make it happen again.

0:03.6

Now, that's who you want to be around. I'll give you a ninja trick right now. Here's the thing, Matt, and you know this. People spend more time planning a freaking birthday party than they do designing their lives. Pick your freaking vehicle. Decide how you're going to capitalize on what's coming. Recognize that everybody that's super successful that has thousands of units started where you are right now.

0:21.8

This is the epic real estate podcast. Contrarian takes on money, housing, and policy without the guru nonsense.

0:30.2

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. If you think your retirement,

0:36.3

your rentals, or your next deal is safe, you're watching the wrong crash. Everyone's staring at single family like it's about to break. But the real storm? It's not there. It's in the apartments. And here's the setup. By the end of 2025, nearly $2 trillion in commercial real estate debt will have come due over the last two years. A little over one-third, about $500 billion, is apartments. And it doesn't stop. The annual maturity volume

0:59.3

that keeps climbing until the peak hits in 2007, $1.26 trillion in a single year. That's not

1:06.3

theory. That's happening right now. Already $107 billion in properties are in distress. That's a decade high. Multifamily alone makes up 34.9% of the pain. Distress has jumped from 2.6% to 12.9%. And get this in just a year. That's a 5x spike. Now imagine this is you. You borrowed at 4.3% a few years ago. Now you're rolling

1:31.0

into 6.2% plus rates. If you floated, the secured overnight financing rate just kicked you with

1:37.4

500 extra basis points. Your payments, they doubled. But your income didn't. You're instantly

1:42.7

underwater the moment you refinance. So what are banks doing? Well, they're not fixing't. You're instantly underwater the moment you refinance. So,

1:45.2

what are banks doing? Well, they're not fixing it. They're papering it over. They call it extend and

1:50.6

pretend. In 2024 loan, they modified a record $19 billion in loans. And the Fed admits these

1:57.5

workouts now equal 27% of bank capital. Let that sink in for just a second.

2:03.0

This isn't just a landlord problem. It's a banking system problem. I think it was Donald Trump

2:07.7

famously said if you owe the bank $5 million, you got a problem. If you owe the bank $500 million,

2:14.2

the bank's got a problem. Meanwhile, sales volume has collapsed. Commercial loan

2:18.4

origination is down almost 50% year over year. And brokers who used to ghost you, now they're

2:23.5

chasing you, desperate for reliable closers. That's why the opportunity is so sharp right now,

2:28.6

because cracks always show at first where owners are least prepared, the mom and pop landlords.

2:33.7

See, most 10 to 40

...

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