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Stansberry Investor Hour

The Private-Equity Reckoning Is Here

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

America, How, To, Crash, Money, Learn, Stansberry, Income, Research, Debt, Stocks, Porter, Business, Realestate, Banking, Investment, American, Investing, Invest, Howtosave, Sjuggerud, Ferris, Eifrig, Jubilee, Buck, Sexton, Market, Bonds, Churchouse, Savings, Options, Lashmet

4.4677 Ratings

🗓️ 17 March 2025

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Dan Rasmussen back to the show. Dan is the founder and portfolio manager of asset-management firm Verdad Advisers, as well as a bestselling author. His most recent book, The Humble Investor, came out just last month. 

Dan kicks off the show by explaining what motivated him to write The Humble Investor. This leads to a discussion about why savvy investors should be skeptical of forecasts and why they should always consider whether other investors are looking at the same data and reaching the same conclusions as them. One area where this is a big problem is AI. It's capital intensive with very little return thus far, yet investors are blindly buying into AI stocks on lofty expectations. Dan points out that the "Magnificent Seven" are riskier than most folks realize, and this overvaluing of U.S. stocks has made foreign investors begin to look at other countries' markets for opportunities. (1:47)

Next, Dan talks about investors mistakenly being underweight gold for years, whether it's possible to predict a bubble, the pattern of credit crises, and the recent worrying signal of money drying up in private equity. He notes that this tendency for investors to take on more risk in private equity than elsewhere is a disaster waiting to happen. Dan then delves into which parts of the market he finds most and least attractive today. For example, he notes that changing corporate governance for Japanese stocks is an "obvious catalyst" for doubling your money, while short-term macroeconomic factors are keeping him away from U.S. Treasurys. (17:12)

Finally, Dan discusses diversification versus "diworsification," the often-ignored problem with passive investing, and the "valuation drop-off" between S&P 500 Index stocks and foreign stocks. With the Magnificent Seven officially in a bear market, Dan declares that "the turning point seems to be upon us" for U.S. stock valuations to come down. And he concludes with a stark reminder about earnings growth for listeners. (38:11)

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and The Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research.

0:08.8

And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisors and author of The Humble Investor.

0:19.2

We've had Dan on the show before.

0:22.3

He's a very smart guy.

0:24.4

I read his stuff just about every week.

0:29.8

I want you to get a load of what he's got to say because some of the material in his book is absolutely essential, must-read investor material.

0:34.4

So let's talk with Dan Rasmuss, and let's do it right now.

0:46.6

Thank you. material. So let's talk with Dan Rasmuss and let's do it right now. For the last 25 years, Dan Ferris has predicted nearly every financial and political crisis

0:51.8

in America, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008

0:55.3

and the peak of the NASDAQ in 2021. Now he has a new major announcement about a crisis that

1:01.2

could soon threaten the U.S. economy and can soon bankrupt millions of citizens. As he puts it,

1:07.0

there is something happening in this country, something much bigger than you may yet realize,

1:11.4

and millions are about to be blindsided unless they take the right steps now. Find out what's coming

1:16.6

and how to protect your portfolio by going to www. AmericanDarkday.com and sign up for this free report.

1:24.7

The last time the U.S. economy looked like this, stocks didn't move for 16 years,

1:29.0

and many investors lost 80% of their wealth. Learn the steps you can take right away to protect

1:34.6

and potentially grow your holdings many times over at www.american darkday.com.

1:47.0

Dan, welcome back to the show.

1:48.5

Good to see you again.

1:49.4

Thanks for me on.

1:51.0

Yeah, we kind of had to.

1:53.2

I got this book delivered to me recently that had your name on it.

...

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