Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, November 10th, and that means it's time for Longreed Sunday.

Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it,

give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash

breakdown pod. All right, friends, well, today we are discussing one of the most discussed process stories around the election,

which is the rise of prediction markets.

Polymarket was obviously a big phenomenon in the crypto space, but even Kalshi, which the

CFTC tried to shut down and was rebuffed by a federal judge, had a big part of

this story as well. The question is where prediction markets are going to fit in the future,

and so to get us started, let's first turn it over to an AI me from 11 Labs to read an essay

by Carl Vogel, partner at Six-Man Ventures, called Forget Polls, Crypto-based

Opinion Markets are the future of collective

wisdom. Here is Carl's essay.

Opinions are like ass-a-one. Everyone has one. Polls have long been the predominant method to

capture public opinion and collective insight, largely because they offer a quick and scalable way

to gauge public sentiment on a variety of topics. However, they are

also subject to low engagement, spam, and chicanery. Just ask the UK how it ended up with a research

vessel named Boady McBoatface. Opinion markets offer an alternative way to address the flaws

in traditional polling. They can be a superior method to gauge market sentiment because they

obviate the failure

...