The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.4 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 15 January 2024
⏱️ 55 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become a top-of-mind concern in defense and corporate circles in recent years. But what would such an attack actually look like? And what would be the economic impact to world if it actually happened? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Jennifer and Gerard, along with a larger team of Bloomberg economists and journalists, recently undertook a massive exercise to game out the potential impact to the global economy of a war in the Taiwan Strait — which they estimate to be around $10 trillion. That would be significantly larger than the biggest disruptions in recent memory, including the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis, leaving virtually no part of the world unaffected. We discuss how they go about assessing the odds of each scenario and how they evaluate the possible impacts.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | At public, we took fixed income and fixed it. |
| 0:03.0 | Now you can find, evaluate, and buy thousands of bonds |
| 0:06.0 | with an investing experience designed this century. |
| 0:09.0 | Go to public.com slash bonds podcast to get started this podcast is sponsored by public |
| 0:14.8 | full disclosures can be found at public com slash bonds welcome to crash course |
| 0:21.1 | a podcast about business, political, and social disruption and |
| 0:25.0 | what we can learn from it. I'm Tim O'Brien. Every week on Crash Course, I'm going |
| 0:30.1 | to bring listeners directly into the arenas where epic upheavals occur. |
| 0:34.6 | And I'm going to explore the lessons we can learn when creativity and ambition collide with |
| 0:39.9 | competition and power. |
| 0:42.2 | Listen to Crash Course every Tuesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, |
| 0:47.0 | or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. |
| 1:03.5 | I'm Joe Wiesenthal. |
| 1:04.8 | And I'm Tracy Allaway. |
| 1:06.2 | Tracy, you know, for years, I've always thought |
| 1:09.8 | that if you want to be like a smart sounding pundit at the beginning of the year and someone |
| 1:14.6 | asks you like what risks are you thinking about right now you like stroke your |
| 1:18.8 | chin and look off and you say I'm really worried about like geopolitical risk and that's always like a safe answer |
| 1:24.4 | any time and year like that always makes you sound sophisticated. |
| 1:27.5 | Yes, unexpected geopolitical risks are an evergreen category of punditry. This is true. There is one specific risk within that |
| 1:36.3 | category that I feel like has come up every year for almost as long as I can remember and that is the risk of something happening between China and Taiwan. |
| 1:47.0 | And I have a really embarrassing confession to make. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Bloomberg, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Bloomberg and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.