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Wall Street Breakfast

The Marlboro Man returns

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business, Investing, Business News, News

3.8950 Ratings

🗓️ 22 July 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Philip Morris reports surprise cigarette strength. (0:15) Should Powell quit the Fed to save it? (1:25) Kohl’s surges on suspected short squeeze. (3:20)

Show Notes
Why high-beta stocks are threatening the broader market
Two AI models claim victory in math Olympics

Episode transcripts seekingalpha.com/wsb. Sign up for our daily newsletter here and for full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores, dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action,

0:07.4

news, and analysis. Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, July 22nd, and I'm your host, Kim

0:13.6

Khan. Our top story so far. Smoke them if you got them, everybody else is. Philip Morris

0:19.4

reported a bounceback in tobacco where you still need a match or a lighter.

0:23.6

The combustibles business saw Q2 net revenue increased by 2.1 percent, fueled by strong pricing, partly offset by negative mixed dynamics.

0:31.6

Marlborough continued to gain global market share, achieving its highest quarterly market share since the 2008 spin-off.

0:38.3

The overall cigarette category share was noted to be broadly stable, even though a return

0:42.6

to negative growth is still anticipated.

0:44.8

Philip Morris's smoke-free business accounted for 41% of total net revenue in the quarter

0:49.1

and 42% of total gross profit.

0:51.5

The company's smoke-free products are now available in 97 markets,

0:55.3

nearly half of which have at least two or three of the flagship brands, Icos Zinn or Veeve,

1:00.0

including 20 markets with all three. But the stock is under pressure after the company missed

1:04.0

top-line expectations for Q2, even though Philip Morris boosted guidance. Looking ahead, the

1:09.3

tobacco giants, he's fully adjusted EPS,

1:11.7

of 743 to 756, midpoint 7.49, versus prior expectations of 736 to 749 and 749 consensus.

1:21.4

Philip Morris also declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share.

1:25.9

On the economic front, Fed Chairman Jay Powell sidestepped any mention

1:29.3

of Fed independence, pressure from President Donald Trump, or monetary policy in general in his

1:34.1

remarks this morning. Prediction market Kalshi still puts the odds of Powell being out before his term is

1:39.1

over below one and four. But economist and strategist Mohamed El Arian has an out-of-the-box suggestion for Powell's future. He says the Fed chief should resign in order to ensure that the

1:49.0

Fed remains independent. I recognize this isn't the consensus view which favors him

...

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