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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The Interview - When The Whole Daisy Chain Unwinds

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 β€’ 1.1K Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 13 June 2020

⏱️ 89 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today, Raal interviews James Aiken, a macro insider known for his analysis of FX markets. James talks to Raal about the different choke points he's seeing in the dollar funding markets and how these strains are affecting the bond market worldwide.

0:21.0

You see, Forex and Bonds, they can seem like entirely different baskets, but they're actually intertwined in extremely interesting and important ways.

0:30.0

And today, Raal and James go over that relationship in great detail. They really give you a

0:36.0

master class of the interplay between currency risk and credit risk. So it's a great conversation, it's a long conversation,

0:44.7

and I think that you're, you know,

1:00.3

you and I have known each other for quite a long time now and your understanding of the complexities of the juxtaposition

1:07.7

between macro politics and the plumbing is unparalleled. You know, you're very well known as the

1:15.1

insiders insider and I just thought with so much going on you were the person I

1:19.4

really wanted to reach out to just get a really an understanding of what is really going on and where do we think

1:25.6

this is all going and just to get your personal opinions on some of this.

1:29.7

Well it's very good to see you old boy and I thank you very much for having me on and I'm very grateful to you and your subscribers for their time.

1:38.2

Before we get into markets rail I'd just like to give as our American American friends would say, the most enormous shout out to anybody

1:45.5

and everybody who's been affected by COVID-19.

1:49.2

Our thoughts go out to families who may have loved ones in hospital or lost loved ones. Our thoughts of course

1:55.2

go out to all the heroes on the front line of medicine working in ICUs non-stop.

2:00.0

And also our thoughts of course go out to individuals who are trying to keep their family portfolios on an even kill.

2:07.0

And of course all those small businessmen and business women who are imagining what the next six to nine months or 12 months looks like for their business.

2:14.3

So it's a very humbling time for us all, isn't it?

2:17.0

I think that was a very generous introduction.

2:19.7

I appreciate it.

2:20.7

I'm just not sure it's deserved. Well, give people a bit of background about yourself as well just so they can catch up.

2:26.7

No, I won't take your subscribers through the whole lamentable cell-side career.

...

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