The Hidden Politics of Disorder

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

Society & Culture, Government, News

4.6 • 11K Ratings

🗓️ 18 October 2024

⏱️ 92 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Crime data has been a flashpoint in this election. Kamala Harris has claimed that violent crime is at a “near 50-year low,” while Donald Trump has insisted that crime is going up. According to the numbers reported to the F.B.I., Harris is right: Crime, especially violent crime, has been falling. But if you look at survey data, Trump is tapping into something people feel. Last year, 77 percent of Americans told Gallup that they believe crime is on the rise. So what’s going on here? Why, if crime is falling, do people feel less safe? Charles Fain Lehman, a crime and drug policy researcher at the Manhattan Institute, wrote a piece on his Substack, The Causal Fallacy, on exactly this question. In this conversation, we discuss why he thinks Americans are feeling less safe, despite what the data says, as well as the ideological shifts taking place around drugs and crime, on both the left and the right. Mentioned: “Breakdown” by Heather Mac Donald “Between Tolerant Containment and Concerted Constraint: Managing Madness for the City and the Privileged Family” by Neil Gong Book Recommendations: Thinking About Crime by James Q. Wilson Against Excess by Mark Kleiman The Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Switch and Board Podcast Studio.

Transcript

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0:35.0	And thank you to everyone who is already subscribed.
0:38.0	It means so much to me and to the show. From New York Times opinion, this is the Ezra Klein show. During the pandemic there was a rise in violent crime, but by 2023
1:09.6	violent crime was back near its lowest level in over 50 years. But also in
1:15.8	2023, Gallup found 77% of Americans believed that crime had been
1:21.6	increasing.
1:23.0	It can see just the media, but I heard it a lot, I still hear it actually, a lot in everyday life.
1:28.8	When I just talk to people who aren't that political about the things that are concerning them politically.
1:34.9	People talk to me constantly about the sense that the place they live is less safe than it
1:40.5	used to be and they're mad about it. This was constant when I lived in
1:44.7	San Francisco. The sense that San Francisco was descending into chaos, it was everywhere.
1:50.1	I have found it a lot here in New York. I've met people in New York City who are not very political,
1:56.8	but they vote and they've always voted for Democrats and now they want to vote for Republicans
	...

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