From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch.

With just 10 days to the GOP caucuses in Iowa, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and

Nicki Haley are now really mixing it up. Who's up, who's down, their strengths and

weaknesses, and a look at those possible paths to victory.

Welcome to Potomac Watch.

I'm Kim Strossle joined today by two essential amazing colleagues,

Kate Batchelder O'Dell and Bill McGurn.

And what we're going to do here is take a look at these front runners in turn, but first just to set the scene. The caucuses are the Tuesday after next and right now the real clear politics average has Trump with 51% of the vote in Iowa,

Desantis at 18.6% and Nicky Haley just about tied with him at 16.1.

Then there's a big gap before you get to some of the single digit pollers like

Vivak Ramaswami at five or Chris Christie at almost four and well we're going to

focus on Iowa here I think it's also important to note what's going on in

New Hampshire because the follow-on race there is a big part of candidate strategy.

And there, Donald Trump is at 46%, Haley at 25, which I would note is up 10 points from just mid-November,

Chris Christie at 10 and Ron DeSantis at fourth place at 9%.

So Bill, when you look at these numbers, a lot of people,

including the entire media establishment are basically saying well this

is done before it's even begun Donald Trump in both states has a lead at 20 or

even 30 points he's inevitable I did to look at a little different in that I think it's kind of striking that even though he's essentially the incumbent, he's still at about 50%, meaning that at least half of the state wants somebody else to be the nominee.

That could be even greater number given. Polls are showing anywhere from 35 to 45% of the electorate

still says that they are open to changing their minds before the

caucus or remain undecided. But what say you, Bill? Tell me why I'm wrong. Does

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