The good, the bad and the ugly of election polling
Make Me Smart
Marketplace
4.6 • 5.5K Ratings
🗓️ 5 June 2024
⏱️ 33 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
With the 2024 election only five months away, polls abound. But since 2016, polls have had somewhat of a bad rap, and many Americans have become skeptical of their reliability.
David Dutwin, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at NORC at the University of Chicago, said we’re thinking about polls all wrong. On the show today, Dutwin explains what polls can and can’t tell us, how to spot a high-quality poll and what kind of role polling should play in our understanding of elections. Plus, what’s keeping pollsters up at night.
Then, we’ll talk about how the Joe Biden administration is addressing an issue that’s top of mind, according to a new Gallup survey: immigration. And, a Half Full/Half Empty update on the job market.
Later, one listener’s small-scale solution to the Big Food problem, and a divisive grammar debate. Plus, a listener was wrong about the meaning of “vibecession.”
Here’s everything we talked about today:
- “What Can Election 2024 Polls Really Tell Us?” from Scientific American
- “Polling in 2024” from Reuters
- View the latest national polls from FiveThirtyEight
- “Public Opinion Polling Basics” from Pew Research Center
- “We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again” from The Washington Post
- “US Job Openings Fall to Lowest Since 2021 in Broad Cooldown” from Bloomberg
- “Immigration Named Top U.S. Problem for Third Straight Month” from Gallup
- “Biden issues new executive action: Much of southern border to close at midnight” from Politico
- “Biden prepares an order that would shut down asylum requests at US-Mexico border” from The Associated Press
- “Kyla Scanlon wants to remind us that ‘people are the economy’” from Marketplace
We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello everyone I'm Kimberly Adams. Welcome back to Make Me Smart where none of us is as |
| 0:11.0 | smart as all of us. I'm Kyle Rizdahl. |
| 0:13.2 | It is Tuesday, today, the fourth day of June. |
| 0:15.4 | We are, let's see, July, August, |
| 0:17.7 | six, every one time, number. |
| 0:18.3 | Five months and a day, I think, |
| 0:21.2 | from the presidential election this year. |
| 0:22.7 | Polls are everywhere, but also polls. |
| 0:27.0 | Hmm. |
| 0:28.0 | Hmm. |
| 0:29.0 | Polls, polls, polls. |
| 0:30.5 | That's right. |
| 0:31.5 | We wanted to know more about the limits and challenges of polling and what |
| 0:36.3 | roles polls should have that's hard to say roles should have in shaping and |
| 0:41.9 | understanding our elections. |
| 0:43.7 | So here to make us smart about this is David Dutwin. |
| 0:46.6 | He's the Senior Vice President of Strategic Initi initiatives at N-O-R-C, a research organization |
| 0:52.1 | at the University of Chicago. |
| 0:54.2 | You've probably heard it when people will say on TV, |
| 0:56.9 | Nork AP poll or some other Nork Associated poll. |
| 1:00.7 | But anyhow, he is also the former president of the American Association for Public |
| 1:05.5 | Opinion Research. |
... |
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