Welcome to Douglas Wilson's Blog and May Blog, presented by Canon Press.

The fourth turning and the future of reformed leadership, July 26, 2023, Introduction.

In 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning, a study of the long

cycles of American history.

Since that time, William Strauss has passed away, but Neil Howe is out with the follow-up

book called The Fourth Turning is Here.

I won't rob you of the value of reading both of them, but so that you might know what

I'm going on about here, I will summarize the basic thesis by way of introduction.

I've written about some of this before.

Not only do individuals have predictable life stages, but so do cultures and nations,

so do societies.

The span of what the Romans call a Seculum is the length of one long human life, meaning

from 80 to 100 years.

During this time, there are four predictable cycles, four turnings.

They correspond to the seasons of the year, spring, summer, autumn, and winter.

The fourth turning is the winter, a time of convulsion and crisis, out of which spring

emerges.

We are in the middle of a fourth turning now, and there's no turning around and going

back.

We have to go through.

Our previous fourth turning was the Second World War.

The one before that was the war between the states.

...