Maybe Chicken Little will eventually be right in economic terms.

I'm David Brancaccio in New York.

The index of leading economic indicators is supposed to hint where the economy is headed.

That's the leading bit. The data came in yesterday

and according to the business research group that publishes this, the

conference board, these are pointing more toward recession. Now the thing is

the index has been falling for 19 months yet where's the

recession as marketplaces Justin Ho reports a lot of economists who've been

warning of the Big R have been updating their forecast lately.

Earlier this year, the conference board was predicting that we'd be in a recession right now.

It seems like the time frame has been shifting.

Eustina Jibenska-Lomodica at the conference board says we're not in a recession because consumer

spending stayed way stronger than expected.

She says that could change, especially now that student loan payments have resumed.

She's still forecasting a recession early next year, but if it happens, it'll probably be short.

Because we don't see a dramatic decline in manufacturing and housing.

Plus inflation is coming down and the labor market is still pretty tight.

Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics says he is no longer forecasting a recession as of this month.

While we still see unemployment increasing and labor conditions begin to soften, we think the most likely

chance is a soft landing now.

Martin says if the economic data keeps surprising him, he'll have no problem updating

his forecasts again.

...