With the Federal Reserve's key Jackson Hole Symposium in the rearview mirror

and the September Fed meeting around the corner, what's next for the Fed and for the U.S. economy more broadly?

We cut our recession probability for the next 12 months just a couple of days ago down to 15% which is about the historical unconditional average because we felt like at this point the risk of aggressive monetary policy tightening causing a recession seems

pretty minor and we're back to a world where sure something can go wrong but something can always

go wrong.

I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.

To discuss the state of the U.S. economy.

To discuss the state of the U economy and what consumers and investors should expect in the coming months,

I'm sitting down with my colleague in Goldman Sachs research, David Miracle, our chief U.S. economist.

David, always great to have you here.

Very nice to be here, thank you.

David, you and I have discussed in recent podcast

the number of challenges that the U.S. economy is facing this year

between inflation.

We've seen this recent surge again in interest rates.

The Fed gathering of global central bankers at Jackson Hole just took place.

What did it reveal to you about the Fed's next move at the September meeting?

My main takeaway was that Chair Powell brought back the word carefully in talking about the

pace of further tightening.

Now when he introduced that word in June,

we and most people took it to mean

that they would hike every other meeting.

...