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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

The Evolution of the 'Long Good Buy'

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Julia McGonagle

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 27 September 2016

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Quantitative easing by the world's major central banks has helped deflate bond yields and pushed valuations across asset classes to historic levels. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses how the long-term case for investing in stocks has evolved and why he sees the most likely scenario from here as a 'Fat & Flat' range of tepid yet positive returns and greater volatility. This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2016. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is exchanges to Goldman Sachs where people from our firm share their insights on developments

0:13.4

currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.

0:16.3

I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.

0:20.3

The word historic gets thrown around a lot and not always correctly, but with $10 trillion of government bonds offering negative yields today, this is indeed at least new territory for the markets.

0:32.0

To discuss what's on the mind of investors, I'm

0:34.3

very pleased to be joined by Peter Oppenheimer, the chief global equity

0:37.8

strategist for Goldman Sachs research. Peter, welcome to the program.

0:41.0

Hello Jake. So Peter, since 2012 you've published a series of reports on what you've called The Long Goodbye,

0:48.4

which is not a Raymond Chandler novel, but, uh, B, you, why? An argument that's favored stocks over bonds. Stock valuations around the

0:56.7

world have risen significantly over that span. How has your view changed one of the various

1:00.9

scenarios going forward?

1:03.2

Well, the reason we argued that it was a long goodbye, a great opportunity for investors

1:07.6

in riskier assets like equities back then, was not because the future in 2012 seemed very certain, but that valuations were very low,

1:17.0

and we thought investors were being, if you like, rewarded for taking some risk.

1:21.0

As you quite rightly say, Jake, three or four years later, valuations have gone up a lot in all financial assets because bond yields have fallen, and that makes the absolute argument harder to make.

1:33.4

We think absolute returns in financial assets will be lower moving forward.

1:37.4

But on a relative case, we still think there are better risk-adjusted opportunities

1:42.3

in equities than bonds.

1:43.6

So the case underlying the long goodbye I think still holds.

1:47.8

Having said that, there are different ways in which it can evolve from here,

1:51.0

and our recent report really tries to focus on those. We have

1:54.7

taught since the beginning of this year of a equity market environment that we

...

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