4.4 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 27 September 2016
⏱️ 20 minutes
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0:00.0 | This is exchanges to Goldman Sachs where people from our firm share their insights on developments |
0:13.4 | currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy. |
0:16.3 | I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm. |
0:20.3 | The word historic gets thrown around a lot and not always correctly, but with $10 trillion of government bonds offering negative yields today, this is indeed at least new territory for the markets. |
0:32.0 | To discuss what's on the mind of investors, I'm |
0:34.3 | very pleased to be joined by Peter Oppenheimer, the chief global equity |
0:37.8 | strategist for Goldman Sachs research. Peter, welcome to the program. |
0:41.0 | Hello Jake. So Peter, since 2012 you've published a series of reports on what you've called The Long Goodbye, |
0:48.4 | which is not a Raymond Chandler novel, but, uh, B, you, why? An argument that's favored stocks over bonds. Stock valuations around the |
0:56.7 | world have risen significantly over that span. How has your view changed one of the various |
1:00.9 | scenarios going forward? |
1:03.2 | Well, the reason we argued that it was a long goodbye, a great opportunity for investors |
1:07.6 | in riskier assets like equities back then, was not because the future in 2012 seemed very certain, but that valuations were very low, |
1:17.0 | and we thought investors were being, if you like, rewarded for taking some risk. |
1:21.0 | As you quite rightly say, Jake, three or four years later, valuations have gone up a lot in all financial assets because bond yields have fallen, and that makes the absolute argument harder to make. |
1:33.4 | We think absolute returns in financial assets will be lower moving forward. |
1:37.4 | But on a relative case, we still think there are better risk-adjusted opportunities |
1:42.3 | in equities than bonds. |
1:43.6 | So the case underlying the long goodbye I think still holds. |
1:47.8 | Having said that, there are different ways in which it can evolve from here, |
1:51.0 | and our recent report really tries to focus on those. We have |
1:54.7 | taught since the beginning of this year of a equity market environment that we |
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