The duality of NFL expectations
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic
4.7 • 3K Ratings
🗓️ 25 June 2025
⏱️ 55 minutes
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Summary
Every NFL season includes multiple instances of teams surprising us on the positive side of the ledger (hello 2024 Broncos and 2023 Texans) and the negative side (oh, hi 2022 Buccaneers and 2020 Eagles). Are there any threads those teams share? Any traits that repeat themselves year after year that can help inform how we're looking at the 2025 season? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dig into the types of teams we consistently overrate, and those we regularly underrate, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.
Hosts: Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen
Executive Producer: Michael Beller
Producer: Michael Beller
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi, we're Jessie and Lenny from our podcast Table Manners and we're currently sponsored by Netflix. |
| 0:04.6 | There's nothing better than watching a fascinating real story. I agree and if you listeners are |
| 0:10.2 | interested in unbelievable true stories, then Netflix has a treat for you this month. A standout |
| 0:15.5 | that I personally loved was Con Mum. It's a new documentary which tells the story of TV pastry chef Graham Hornegold, |
| 0:22.7 | reuniting with his long-lost mum, only to find out months later she may not be who she says. |
| 0:28.3 | Watch Con Mum from the 25th of March and even more real stories this march on Netflix. |
| 0:40.0 | Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. |
| 0:42.3 | I'm Robert Mays. |
| 0:43.2 | Fun show for you guys today. |
| 0:44.7 | We got a mailbag question earlier this spring from a listener. |
| 0:47.9 | It was essentially about trying to figure out which teams, |
| 0:51.1 | which types of teams we overrate or underrate heading into a given season. |
| 0:56.1 | Like, where are our blind spots as we're trying to predict season-long results for some of |
| 1:01.0 | these teams? |
| 1:01.7 | So that's what Derek Klesson and I did today. |
| 1:03.7 | We went back over the last decade and used under or overperforming preseason win totals to try to identify some of the teams that |
| 1:13.8 | were the most disparate from our expectations, whether that was in a good or bad way. |
| 1:18.1 | And then we figured out buckets that those teams fell into. |
| 1:21.3 | So which types of teams do we typically overrate and which types of teams do we typically |
| 1:27.0 | underrate? This was a really |
| 1:28.4 | fun discussion. A lot of teams that are either just hiding there in plain sight or just kind of |
| 1:33.1 | jump right out at you. So really fun to kind of go back and remember some of these teams, |
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