The duality of NFL expectations
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic
4.6 • 3.3K Ratings
🗓️ 25 June 2025
⏱️ 53 minutes
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Summary
Every NFL season includes multiple instances of teams surprising us on the positive side of the ledger (hello 2024 Broncos and 2023 Texans) and the negative side (oh, hi 2022 Buccaneers and 2020 Eagles). Are there any threads those teams share? Any traits that repeat themselves year after year that can help inform how we're looking at the 2025 season? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dig into the types of teams we consistently overrate, and those we regularly underrate, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.
Hosts: Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen
Executive Producer: Michael Beller
Producer: Michael Beller
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | He's having a blinder. He's clipped the post. He's looking formidable. Then... |
| 0:09.0 | His game might be over, but yours isn't. |
| 0:14.0 | With Betfair's safe sob, your bet simply rolls onto the player coming on. |
| 0:18.0 | Playing a different league with BetFair. |
| 0:24.6 | Balladon selected leagues and markets only applies to singles, multiples, and bet builder bets on qualified player outcome selections does not apply to odds, boosts, |
| 0:27.6 | season, season, exclusions apply 18 plus gamblerware.org. Welcome to the athleticic Football Show. |
| 0:37.8 | I'm Robert Mays. |
| 0:38.7 | Fun show for you guys today. |
| 0:40.2 | We got a mailbag question earlier this spring from a listener. |
| 0:43.5 | It was essentially about trying to figure out which teams, which types of teams we overrate or underrate, heading into a given season. |
| 0:51.6 | Like, where are our blind spots as we're trying to predict season-long results for some of |
| 0:56.6 | these teams? |
| 0:57.2 | So that's what Derek Klasson and I did today. |
| 0:59.4 | We went back over the last decade and used under or overperforming preseason win totals |
| 1:07.1 | to try to identify some of the teams that were the most disparate from our expectations, |
| 1:11.6 | whether that was in a good or bad way. And then we figured out buckets that those teams fell |
| 1:16.3 | into. So which types of teams do we typically overrate and which types of teams do we typically |
| 1:22.5 | underrate? This was a really fun discussion. A lot of teams that are either just hiding there |
| 1:27.3 | in plain sight or just kind of jump right |
| 1:29.2 | out at you. |
| 1:29.9 | So really fun to kind of go back and remember some of these teams, what our expectations |
| 1:33.8 | were, how we talked about them and how surprising either in a good or bad way a lot of |
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