The Costliest Moment for Investors in History

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

America, How, To, Crash, Money, Learn, Stansberry, Income, Research, Debt, Stocks, Porter, Business, Realestate, Banking, Investment, American, Investing, Invest, Howtosave, Sjuggerud, Ferris, Eifrig, Jubilee, Buck, Sexton, Market, Bonds, Churchouse, Savings, Options, Lashmet

4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 3 January 2019

⏱️ 54 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After a brutal December, Dan Ferris rings in the New Year and addresses the question every investor is wondering: Where will the stock market go in 2019?

The best way to predict the future, he says, is to understand the present – and that starts with what he calls “the most expensive moment in the history of the stock market” which we saw just last fall.

It’s been costlier for investors than any equivalent moment in the Dot.com collapse or the 2008 crisis – and it’s the best indicator Dan’s seen of where stocks are right now. “If history rhymes… within two years, you see a big fat hairy bottom. Normal levels would be 60%.”

“There’s a lot of downside left if history rhymes.”

Later on, they’re joined by Mark B. Spiegel. Mark is the Managing Member & Portfolio Manager of Stanphyl Capital Partners and is a New York-based equity investor.

Prior to founding Stanphyl in 2011, he spent six years as an investment banker financing public companies. Prior to becoming an investment banker Mark spent a year working for a microcap Nasdaq tech company, and he began his career with 17 years in the commercial real estate industry where he experienced firsthand the opportunities and challenges faced by a wide array of client companies.

Mark believes that all these experiences– banking public companies, working for a public company and securing real estate for a wide variety of companies– combine to provide the kind of “real world” experience that’s extremely useful for an investor.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Broadcasting from Baltimore, Maryland and New York City, you're listening to the Stansberry Investor Hour.
0:11.5	Tune in each Thursday on iTunes for the latest episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour.
0:16.1	Sign up for the free show archive at InvestorHour.com.
0:19.7	Here are the hosts of your show, Buck Sexton and Porter Stansberry.
0:24.2	Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm your host,
0:30.1	Dan Ferris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value of Value Investing Research service published by
0:35.2	Stansberry Research. And we've got a few things to talk
0:38.7	about this week. This year, I should say, happy new year. It's January 2019 already. Man, what
0:45.9	happened to 2018? So, look, the first thing on everybody's mind, you know, every investor's mind, okay, at the beginning of a year is what's the stock market going to do this year?
0:59.9	So I can't not talk about that.
1:02.9	There's no way I can not talk about that.
1:06.6	Thing is, if you've been listening to podcasts that I've been doing here for several weeks already,
1:11.6	you know that I really don't like to make predictions. I don't like to say the market is
1:16.5	going to fall 22% in 2019 or over any other period of time. However, like, if you're an equity investor,
1:26.8	you can't not think about the future.
1:29.8	And I think the best way to think about the future is just to ask where do we stand right now?
1:36.9	And that may be a familiar question to you if you've read extreme value or anything else that I've written about this topic.
1:44.3	Because that's it's a phrase often used by a guy named Howard Marks, who wrote a book called
1:49.7	The Most Important Thing that I recommend all the time.
1:53.5	I think it's a great book.
1:54.9	It's a quick read and it's deeply insightful.
1:57.4	I highly recommend it.
	...

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