We're over the halfway mark. This is episode four in our series of Red Lions constituency profiles with just two weeks to go until election day.

This week we're focusing on the three Antrim seats, North, South and East.

And with me to talk through where the tastiest contests are likely to be are our regular numbers man, Dr David McCann,

our political correspondent Jane McCormack,

and our former colleague and proud son of North Antrim, Stephen Walker. Welcome to you all.

We're going to start with the contest, which may well prove to be the juiciest of the three.

David, give us your South Antrim at a glance.

This is the second most marginal DUP seat in Northern Ireland.

Paul Gerben, who is seeking a third term.

He had the lowest winning share of any incumbent DEP, MP anywhere in Northern Ireland, 35.3%.

This is realistically the Australianest best chance at winning a seat, and it shows by the candidate they're running, the former health minister, Robin Swan.

Lucid talk, interestingly, in their most recent poll in the Balthus Telegraph, are projecting around an 11 percentage point swing away from the DUP, and they hold this seat by margin of just over 6%.

So again, this will be very much in the Austrianists' sites.

This is also the only seat that the Australianists have ever successfully won back at Westminster

level from the DUP. They've won it back twice, once in 2001, and then again in 2015, when

Danny Kinnahen took the seat for the party. There's an interesting tactical vote that goes on here. So at

an assembly election in 2022, the combined nationalist vote was around about 27% in the constituency.

But at the 2019 general election, that combined vote was under 17%. So the Australianists typically

pull better at Westminster in the constituency and lower in the assembly.

Why is that? It is nationalist making a tactical vote in the constituency.

The TV are also in the race here and that is pretty critical.

In 2015, Rick Kearns pulled 1,9008 votes.

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