I feel like the core bond markets, which is the government markets and the tips market,

they're looking at all this information and they're saying that, you know, look, the Fed and the

U.S. government, obviously valiant efforts. They did a massive campaign in March and April to try

to stop the bleeding in the economy, but they perhaps maybe shot a lot of their ammo too quick.

And now they've really, you know, limited the ability to actually arrest any sort of

second wave, both in COVID, but also a second wave in the economy slowing down in a more

proper recession. And I think that is lost upon most equity folks.

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And now, here's your host, NLW. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, July 30th,

and today we are talking about the story that the bond market has been telling us that we are

not paying attention to. To tell that story, I have guessed George Goncalves,

but first, the brief. First up on the brief today, it is the jobless claims and GDP story. So what

happened? First, the GDP story. The U.S. economy contracted at a record rate last quarter. It fell at 32.9% annual rate and was

9.5% lower than the same quarter last year. This is the steepest drop in records dating back

to 1947. Now, the thing that takes the sting out of this a little bit is that this was expected.

This is the GDP story of a quarter where we saw mandated shutdowns of business,

so of course there was a huge, huge dip.

The less good part of the story is that rather than being full on into a big V-shaped recovery,

we're seeing dangerous signals in other areas

as well, which gets us to the jobless claims numbers.

...