4.7 • 938 Ratings
🗓️ 27 December 2021
⏱️ 226 minutes
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0:00.0 | Welcome podcast friends we have a mega episode for you today and in the holiday spirit if you like the show pass it along share it with one of your friends or family members |
0:15.5 | Over the past few months we've been releasing the best investment writing volume 5 |
0:19.6 | featuring some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world. |
0:24.0 | In case you missed any episodes over the past few months, we wanted to bring you the entire |
0:28.1 | volume as one show. Feel free to listen from start to finish or check out the show notes for the time stamps of each piece. |
0:34.4 | Enough for me, let's get to it. |
0:37.0 | Hi, I'm Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University. |
0:41.6 | I would like to introduce my paper Breaking Bad trends written with three of my |
0:47.3 | colleagues at research affiliates Ashish Christian and Michaeli. I will share the reading with Michaeli. Our paper resides on |
0:57.1 | SSRN and is freely downloaded and includes tables, figures and many references. |
1:02.4 | Let me motivate the paper. includes tables, figures, and many references. |
1:03.7 | Let me motivate the paper. |
1:06.0 | Researchers in academic finance have long known that there is some persistence and returns, |
1:11.9 | so-called time series momentum. However, an important choice needs to be made. |
1:17.9 | How far back in time do you go to measure the trend? One year, one month, one day. Academic researchers usually |
1:26.6 | make a choice and stick to it. Here's the trade-off. If the look-back is longer, then the signal might not be very responsive to current information. |
1:38.0 | Sometimes this is called a slow signal, and you might miss an important turning point. |
1:44.0 | For example, your trading system uses a one-year look back and the past 12 months return is negative, |
1:52.0 | which means you're short. However, the past one month's |
1:56.0 | return is positive, potentially signaling a rebound. If that rebound is |
2:01.6 | realized, you miss it because you're using the slower 12-month |
2:07.8 | momentum signal. This is known as a type 2 error or a missed opportunity. |
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