The Bear Necessities

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 October 2017

⏱️ 26 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Eight years into the "most unloved" bull market in history, many investors are asking how much longer the upswing can last. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses why identifying the peak may be less important than recognizing a bear market once it starts, and what history can tell us about the types and tenures of these declines. This podcast was recorded on October 16, 2017. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2017 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is exchanges at Goldman Sachs, where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:15.6	I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.
0:18.8	Every investor fears a bare market, traditionally defined as a pullback of 20% or greater from stock prices peak, but predicting one is no easy task.
0:29.0	My guest today, Peter Ropinheimerheimer is the chief global equity
0:33.2	strategist in Goldman Sachs research, and with his team,
0:36.4	the author of a new report analyzing bear markets
0:38.9	throughout history to help us better understand
0:41.6	their causes and characteristics.
0:43.3	Peter, thanks for joining us.
0:44.8	Thank you, Jay. Great to be here.
0:46.8	Peter, you recently published a report with a great title, Bear Necessities.
0:51.0	Why did you write that report right now? It it because you think there's a bare market coming
0:54.9	our way very soon or does it reflect conversations you're having with our clients?
0:59.7	Why the report on bare markets at this point in time?
1:02.1	Well partly because we're not yet in a bare market and it's always good to stand back
1:06.6	when things are looking really good, to look at the sorts of things that may change that situation.
1:12.1	And we found that in fact trying to pinpoint the absolute peak of
1:16.1	the market doesn't often make that much sense.
1:18.6	It's much more important to identify a change in the trend when it comes and what actually triggers those changes.
1:25.0	Generally I think finally we're starting to see quite significant investor optimism.
1:30.0	Global growth is strong and synchronized in a way that we really haven't seen since before the financial crisis.
1:38.0	And we've had a long and strong bull market, profits and margins are at highs, at least in the US.
	...

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