The AI trade is just getting started | Sonali Basak, iCapital
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 13 November 2025
⏱️ 32 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Sonali Basak is the chief investment strategist at iCapital. She joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the acceleration of the AI trade, risks in Big Tech's spending ambitions, the K-shaped economy, opportunities in private markets and more.
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Intro
0:23 - Rethinking AI trade
2:32 - Leverage and debt in AI boom
6:17 - Michael Burry, market sentiment
8:22 - Dot-com vs. AI comparisons
11:11 - Rotation out of tech?
13:47 - Hidden opportunities in market
15:29 - Private markets
18:20 - AI is still early
19:34 - AI impact on K-Shape economy
22:43 - Uncertainty in jobs
24:30 - Geopolitics in AI race
26:38 - Under-appreciated risks
#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up, guys. On today's episode of Full Signal, I sit down with Shinali Bassik, the chief investment |
| 0:05.7 | strategist at I Capital. She is one of the smartest people who works in finance, and I really enjoyed |
| 0:11.1 | our conversation about the K-shaped economy, the AI trade, what's coming next for markets and the |
| 0:17.1 | economy next year, and much more. I hope you enjoy this conversation. |
| 0:22.9 | Shanaali, I know you've been doing a lot of work in the AI trade. Can you walk us through how |
| 0:27.9 | you're thinking about this right now? Yeah, there's a lot of reasons you have to think about |
| 0:31.5 | AI from a lot of angles, isn't there? Because first, you have a moment in the markets where the |
| 0:35.9 | concentration risk, everybody talks about it. |
| 0:38.5 | It is as extreme as it's ever been. That top 10 companies accounting for more than 40, almost 45% of the S&P 500's market weight. |
| 0:47.1 | That's one reason why we believe that you not only have to look at these companies as a group anymore, but the changing forces |
| 0:55.9 | behind all the things that are within that group. |
| 0:59.7 | So one thing that's really interesting at this particular moment when it comes to artificial |
| 1:03.8 | intelligence is the narrative. |
| 1:06.4 | Let's use meta as just one example. |
| 1:08.9 | The first half of the year, you had meta coming out and saying, |
| 1:12.2 | we're spending more on cap X and the market couldn't get enough of it. You saw the shares bid up. |
| 1:17.9 | You did see, for example, meta trading better than almost anyone in the Mag 7 for a while. |
| 1:24.7 | It stayed among the top gainers for most most of the year and then you got to |
| 1:29.5 | the second half of the year and the most recent earnings report and what you saw is a change in that |
| 1:34.7 | narrative and through last week you saw meta being the worst among the worst if not the worst |
| 1:40.2 | performer in that mag seven group so how long does that dynamic last for? We think the |
| 1:45.6 | narrative is changing for a few reasons. One is now the use of leverage when it comes to the AI trade. |
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