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Welcome back to the Lincoln Project. I'm your host, Reed Gailan.

This is part two of our latest conversation with Lincoln Project Senior Advisors, Trickview Olsen and Jeff Temmer about the 2022 midterm elections.

If you didn't catch part one of our conversation, I welcome you to give it a listen. Now, let's get back to it.

All right, guys, so let's talk about some of the key races in the general that we think are important for democracy and are a little bit all over the map literally.

So we talked a little bit about Nevada. We've already discussed Arizona. When I talk about Missouri and the insanity there, Florida, Texas and the fascinating dynamic occurring here in my own state of Utah.

Let's talk a little bit about Nevada first, Trigview. So in the governor's race, you've got Steve Cicillac going up against former Las Vegas Metro Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

You know, it shows again, like we've seen in some of these other races, Cicillac's up three or four, but not at 50. You know, I think he's a generally well thought of guy.

The last time I was out there, he seemed to be well positioned, which is if you talk to progressives, they think he's a Republican. If you talk to Republicans, they think he's a wacko progressive. So, you know, he's he's naturally triangulating the joint.

So how do you see that race? You know, we scored that race 18, which the existential races are 20 and then you have a bunch of races that we scored as 18. It's a huge race. And it's a huge race for a few reasons. One, who's the governor of Nevada matters in presidential politics?

Because that race is going to impact the secretary states race in Nevada. Of course, as a swing state, you know, our colleague or peer Stewart Stevens every time he talks, he brings up the idea that the top of the ballot candidate, the governor in the state of Nevada, tends to be the vote driver for down ballot race as well in Nevada.

You have a huge Senate race between Adam Lacksault and Cortes Mastau. And you've got three Democrat house seats that are all marginal. And in fact, there was polling that came out that quite honestly much like some of these other states just sissalak at 46 Cortes Mastau at maybe like 44 and those house Democrats all ahead, but all down around 41 42 and only by a pointer to.

So that sissalak race is going to be the driver.

Absolutely. And I think as we talked about in the first part, the very real erosion, especially among younger Hispanic males is, I think in part explains what could be going on in Nevada.

We're seeing a continuing realignment of the electorate here. I guess if you first look at the demographics in the state, you would think that it's likely to be more democratic than these polls appear more likely in line with what we've seen over the last 20 years.

But Republicans have done well in Nevada over the last couple of decades. They've had the governor's mentioned before sissalak for a couple of terms been in and out of the US Senate seats out of Nevada with John Endeson and Dean Heller and Nevada always seems to be this place where these top of the ticket races, especially for US Senate, boil down to really a couple thousand votes.

And I think that's where we read was able to famously always hold on, but just barely in the when I look at all of these existential or existential light states that we've been talking about Nevada seems the one most likely poised to flip to the other side.

And I want to just say one thing too, because this is the second time you mentioned younger Latino voters. I mean, I was out there two or three months ago now.

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