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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise: DB- Dec 10, 2020

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 10 December 2020

⏱️ 40 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMarc indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMarc indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Thursday, December 10, 2020.

0:15.0

This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:17.0

I'm Ed Harrison joined shortly by Tom Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry,

0:21.0

founder and CEO.

0:23.6

But first, with the news of the day, Haley Drasman.

0:26.8

Hey Ed, markets were mixed on Thursday

0:29.3

after fresh data showed unemployment claims jumped sharply last week.

0:34.0

853,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week,

0:38.0

that's the highest since September.

0:40.0

It's a big jump from Thanksgiving week and it likely overstates the underlying trend we saw following the holiday at a revised 716,000 initial jobless claims.

0:52.0

To be honest, this was to be expected. The surge in

0:55.2

initial claims is especially concerning when claims are still above levels

0:59.3

near the peak of the Great Recession. If you look at the not seasonally adjusted numbers, it's even

1:04.6

scarier, with 947,000 jobless claims filed. Continuing claims also increased to more than

1:11.8

5.7 million. It's the first time that

1:14.8

number has gone up since August. Investors expected there could be declines in

1:19.7

continuing claims as workers started rolling on to other programs like the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program after having exhausted their state benefits, but we're just not seeing that.

1:32.0

That program is also expected to expire at the end of the month.

1:35.6

This ugly round of data is weighing on expectations for the December jobs report without a doubt.

1:41.5

Thousands of people are losing their jobs every week because demand simply has not returned.

1:47.0

When someone is let go today, I think that means the company doesn't see that job existing for a while, so we're losing momentum here.

1:55.0

The rise in virus cases has put more pressure on the job market.

...

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