Surveillance: U.S. Rates Near 0% in 5 Years, Crescenzi Says
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 14 June 2019
⏱️ 34 minutes
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Summary
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager, sees U.S. rates collapsing toward 0% over the next five years. In a banking roundtable, Gerard Cassidy, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets defends the profitability of U.S. investment banks, while Jonathan Tyce, Bloomberg Intelligence European Banking Analyst, says Barclays is better than Europe but still lagging its American peers. Alexia Howard, Bernstein Analyst, recently downgraded Beyond Meat because she saw the valuation get overstretched too quickly. Bill Keenan, Author & Retired Professional Ice Hockey Player, talks the transition from professional hockey to Wall Street.
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| 0:40.0 | com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. |
| 0:44.0 | I'm Tom Keene. |
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| 1:10.4 | Sometimes the answer to a really basic question helps frame a very complex market and I want to bring in Pimco's Tony Kresensi and begin with your very basic question Tony and it goes as follows |
| 1:25.9 | Where will rates be in five years in say Europe in the United States in Japan walk us through your thinking well we this |
| 1:32.0 | what I'm about to say I've said for the last several years but now we will extend the timeline out further |
| 1:37.8 | So let's go around the world for the European Central Bank which has a policy rate today of minus 0.4% permitting if you will the |
| 1:45.5 | German Bund of trade at minus a quarter point the highest we expected to put its |
| 1:50.9 | policy rate at any time in the next five years is zero percent. |
| 1:55.1 | We would say the same about Japan also around zero. |
| 1:57.8 | They're both dealing with similar forces, as is the United States demographics and productivity major forces in those and for the |
| 2:05.2 | United States likely there'll be a recession at some point in the next five years and |
| 2:09.0 | when it occurs it's highly likely that US market interest rates, Treasury yields, will collapse |
| 2:15.2 | toward 0% just like in Germany and just like in Japan. They'll be a little bit |
| 2:20.8 | higher but they'll still be close to zero and the reason is because of a |
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