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behind your EV batteries environmental impact, behind sand. Yeah, sand, you get context.

And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg.com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene.

Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics finance investment and international relations

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Ploomside. Joce to say that joining us in the studio, Mike Dada,

MK and Partners, chief economist and macro strategists.

Good morning to you Mike.

Good morning, thanks for having.

Your microphone is working, I'm happy about that. Yes it is. You've got some

leading indicators you want to talk to us about so run us through them one by one on why

maybe the jury's still out on this economy. Absolutely so a lot of happy talk on trade as was mentioned and the most

recent raft of macro data looking pretty good GDP and in jobs. So there's a

sense that you know we've soft landed.

Okay, the recession risk has receded now,

but keep in mind we went through a multi-month yield

curve inversion period in the US,

with 12-month forward recession probabilities peaking in August.

So we really need to get through next summer, in my opinion, without evidence of the business cycle,

you know, faltering.

And so what I would watch, you know, if I just

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