Surveillance: Recession Likely Within Year, Misra Says
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 14 August 2019
⏱️ 30 minutes
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Summary
Priya Misra, TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy, says a recession is very likely within the next 12 months. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, believes the core issue with the trade war is actually how it's affecting business confidence, capex and hiring. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder and Chairman, explains why Beijing is deeply worried about Hong Kong protests. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist, analyzes global yield curves. And Brian Kelly, The Points Guy Founder, says it's unstable times for tourism in Hong Kong. ------
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| 0:49.8 | Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg.com. And of course, |
| 0:53.0 | soundcloud, Bloomberg.com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. In Bond markets, very much front and center here is yields plunged to record |
| 1:07.2 | lows, particularly in the longer term debt world. You see both the US |
| 1:11.9 | and Germany reaching those all-time lows so there is one person |
| 1:16.0 | for us to speak with when it comes to Bond yields Priamisra. |
| 1:19.4 | She has ice in her veins she's just you know she's just cool common collected Priya Misra absolutely is cool |
| 1:25.3 | common collected so I want to get a cool common collected view of what's going on Priam isra |
| 1:29.2 | TD securities head of global rate strategy Priya love having you on today on this bond focused morning. |
| 1:35.3 | How would you frame what we're seeing today in bond markets? |
| 1:40.7 | Sure, and thanks for having me on. A little hard to be cool and connected when all of my eel curve signals are suggesting a recession is very likely of greater than 50% chance in the next 12 months. But you know really it's been a perfect storm for |
| 1:54.5 | the Treasury market. You've had global growth being weak and that's brought global |
| 1:59.4 | bond deals lower so there is this duration gap grab but I think we have to look at you know the |
| 2:05.3 | underlying data and manufacturing in the US looks very weak we've been of |
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