Stocks are cratering but the bull market is intact | Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies

Full Signal

Phil Rosen

Investing, Business

4.8 • 18 Ratings

🗓️ 2 December 2025

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Katie Stockton is the founder of Fairlead Strategies and the leading technical strategist on Wall Street. She joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss bearish near-term indicators, the AI trade and comparisons to the dot-com bubble, S&P 500 sector rotations, bitcoin’s correction, and what technical indicators say about stocks. Katie also manages the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK), which has $275 million AUM.

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TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 - Intro

0:25 - Bearish near-term signal

3:20 - Technical indicators

4:27 - Sector rotations

5:77 - Opportunity in healthcare

7:22 - Tech-heavy market

9:15 - Dot-com comparisons

11:43 - MACD Indicator

16:50 - Seasonality trends

19:00 - Nvidia and AI trade

21:25 - Retail buying the dip

23:00 - Bitcoin correction

26:00 - Fairlead’s TACK ETF

31:50 - Follow Katie

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Transcript

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0:00.0	On today's episode of Full Signal, I am joined by Katie Stockton.
0:03.5	She's the founder of Fairlead Strategies and one of the most preeminent technical strategists in the world.
0:09.7	She's worked on Wall Street for more than 20 years.
0:12.1	She manages a fantastic ETF.
0:13.9	And she brought the heat today on every sector in the S&P 500, what charts she's looking at right now, and where we're going
0:22.0	in the new year. I hope you enjoy this conversation. Katie, it's great to have you here.
0:28.0	I want to go through the recent sell-off we had in November, and we've sort of had some chop and a
0:32.6	bit of a rebound. Give us your big picture overview of how you're looking at markets right now.
0:38.0	Yeah, I mean, I would say it was definitely an interesting month in that we saw nearly a 6% down draft for the S&P 500 and yet closed a month nearly flat.
0:48.5	And that tells you that there's a lot of rotation going on, a lot of choppiness, if you will. And the takeaway, honestly,
0:56.4	is more neutral short term. That is our current bias is neutral. And yet it does reflect deterioration
1:04.8	that I think will resurface. And so we are expecting to move to a short-term bearish bias on the back of this bounce with the thought that the initial decline was the A-wave of an ABC correction.
1:21.1	So I don't know if you've ever talked to an Elliot Wave person.
1:24.3	And we're not Elliott Wave theorist by any stretch but oftentimes there's just a three-step
1:30.7	process to a correction it's the initial down draft it's interrupted usually somewhat in the midpoint
1:36.6	by an oversold bounce or relief rally and that's what I think we're in the midst of and then followed by
1:42.6	another down draft and it's that last
1:45.0	down draft that often is the most severe. So if we use that historical sort of precedent and
1:51.8	apply it to the current environment, it would suggest that we're in store for more downside volatility.
1:56.9	But of course, it's coming within the context of a really strong long-term uptrend. So we want to
2:02.1	honor it as that and just be in the mindset of looking for buying opportunities. So when you say
2:07.8	short-term, how long is short-term typically? And if you still see a bullish long-term outlook,
	...

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