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If Russia escalates to using weapons that are banned under all forms, not just see morally and ethically,

regarded as prohibitive, but by arms control agreements, and by the norms of what all governments have accepted,

autocracies and democracies alike, that you can't win a nuclear war, then I don't see how Russia returns to some sense of normalcy when this war ends if they decide to use nuclear weapons in the course of the war.

And that's another consideration Putin has to take under advisement. He can't win if he uses these weapons, and there's no battlefield reversal, he can change by using this.

Rolf Mort Larson is a former career CIA operations officer. He was on our show just a few weeks ago to talk about Russia and Ukraine, and he is backed by popular demand to provide us with an update.

We'll be right back with that discussion after a word from our sponsor. I'm Michael Morel, and this is Intelligence Matters.

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Ralph, welcome back to Intelligence Matters. You now have the distinction of being the guest on the show who has been the quickest to do a repeat performance. We really appreciate you taking the time again.

Michael, it's an honor and I hope I don't leave. You were your guest disappointed. Thanks for having me back.

I'm really looking forward to what's happening in Ukraine and looking forward to update today. Let's dig right in. I'd start by asking you to give us the arc of the story of the war in Ukraine to date.

Let's bring this up from the invasion to where we are now and maybe end by telling us exactly where we are on the ground today.

I think there was a big miscalculation on the way to the end of the war. The false assumptions that we now know to be true.

I don't think these will be disproven over time. The first and foremost that Ukraine's will, the endomitable will, is not going to be denied. I think some people doubted that.

Second, I believe that we underestimated Putin's scope of his intentions. Third is a massive overestimation on the Russian military. Both it's will-defined and it's ability to fight.

Finally, which has turned out to be an extremely important part of the story is NATO's unity, which Putin severely underestimated.

Based on that, I think we've hit a stalemate. That's where we are now from the coming days. We're watching both sides jockeying to see who can break that stalemate.

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