State Of COVID And Antiviral Pill, Future Pandemics. Oct 8, 2021, Part 1
Science Friday
Science Friday and WNYC Studios
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🗓️ 8 October 2021
⏱️ 47 minutes
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Summary
The malaria parasite is one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases, killing on average about 500,000 people per year—half of them children under the age of 5, nearly all of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
Now, the World Health Organization has finally approved RTS,S or Mosquirix, the first vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum, which is the most deadly strain of the parasite. The vaccine has already been administered via a pilot program to 800,000 children in Kenya, Ghana, and Malawi, and in clinical trials showed an efficacy rate of about 50% against severe disease.
WNYC’s Nsikan Akpan explains this and other stories, including a climate change-linked Nobel Prize in physics, controversy over the naming of the James Webb Space Telescope, and a new surveillance method that uses only the shadows you cast on a blank wall.
Will Improved Testing And New Antivirals Change The Pandemic’s Path?Late last week, the pharmaceutical company Merck released data on a new antiviral medication called molnupiravir—a drug taken as a course of pills over five days that the company said was dramatically effective at keeping people with COVID-19 out of the hospital. In a press release, the company said that trial participants on the medication had a 50% lower risk of hospitalization or death compared to people getting the placebo. And while eight people in the placebo group died during the trial, none of the people getting the new drug did.
However, the full data from the trial has yet to be released—and the medication must still go through the FDA approval process before it can be used. Matthew Herper, senior writer at STAT covering medicine, joins Ira to talk about the drug and what questions remain.
Then, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist Céline Gounder discusses other recent coronavirus news—from a government plan to spend a billion dollars on at-home testing to recent data on the Delta variant, including projections of what might happen next.
Preparing For The Next Pandemic Needs To Start NowThe United States has a long history of public health crises. For many, our first pandemic has been COVID-19. But long before the SARS-CoV-2 virus arrived, HIV, measles, and the flu all left a lasting impact. As a wealthy country, you may think the United States would be prepared to deal with public health crises, since they happen here with a degree of regularity. However, that’s not the case.
The longstanding issues that left the country vulnerable to COVID-19 are explored in a recent article from The Atlantic, called “We’re Already Barreling Toward the Next Pandemic.” The piece was written by science writer Ed Yong, who won a Pulitzer Prize last year for his coverage of COVID-19.
Ira speaks to Ed and Gregg Gonsalves, global health activist and epidemiologist at Yale, about the country’s history of public health unpreparedness, and what needs to happen to be ready for the next pandemic.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is Science Friday, I'm Iroplato. Later in the hour, a COVID update and what the US is |
| 0:05.6 | response to this pandemic tells us about future ones. But first, another illness that has caused |
| 0:12.0 | even more death around the world and for far longer malaria. A parasite that every year kills |
| 0:18.4 | hundreds of thousands of people more than half of them children under the age of five. |
| 0:23.4 | And nearly all of those deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. We've never had a vaccine approved |
| 0:29.5 | to fight any parasite in humans, much less this one. But now the World Health Organization |
| 0:35.2 | has granted a stamp of approval to a malaria vaccine made by Farma Company, Glaxo Smith Klein. |
| 0:42.3 | Here to talk more about the vaccine and other stories from the week is my guest, |
| 0:47.2 | Sikhan Akpan, Health and Science Editor at WNYC Radio in New York. Welcome back. |
| 0:53.8 | Thanks for having me. All right, let's talk about how effective is this vaccine? |
| 0:59.6 | Right, yeah, there's been some reporting on the RTSS malaria vaccine suggesting that its efficacy |
| 1:06.9 | is around 50%. But that's actually not quite right. So a clinical trial in 2015 showed |
| 1:14.3 | an efficacy of 50% over the first year against malaria cases. But the longer term efficacy is |
| 1:22.0 | probably closer to 20 to 30% against cases in severe disease. You know, 20 to 30% probably |
| 1:29.6 | doesn't sound that great next to the 90% that we've been seeing with the COVID-19 vaccines. But |
| 1:36.8 | you know, worldwide, if there are 200 million cases in about 400,000 deaths per year, |
| 1:42.8 | you know, in the vaccines, the malaria vaccines efficacy reduces the odds of those things |
| 1:47.9 | happening by 30%. Then you know, you'd be preventing about 60 million cases or 120,000 deaths |
| 1:54.8 | in an IOD world where you can vaccinate everyone who's at risk at the exact same time. |
| 2:00.4 | But I think like a more realistic prediction for sub-Saharan Africa where we see, you know, 90% |
| 2:05.1 | of these cases, when you count for logistics in the time it would take to put doses and people's |
| 2:10.1 | arms and we're talking about four doses for this particular vaccine. You know, you would see probably |
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