Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Monday, March 3rd, and I'm your host, Kim Kong. Our top story so far.

The Stagflation Spector is spooking traders today, wiping out the risk-on move that was booing stocks and weighing on bonds following the weekend

surge in crypto. The February ISM manufacturing index brought with it a, quote, whiff of

stagnation risk, economist Mohamed El-Aryan said. It fell more than expected to 50.3 from 50.9 in January.

That's barely an expansion territory and lower than the 50.6 forecast. New orders fell to 48.6 from

55.1 and the employment component dropped to 47.6 from 50.3. At the same time, the prices paid

components surged to 62.4 from 54.9. That's the highest level since 2022 and raises questions about the potential for the increased

production costs to be passed through to the consumers in the form of higher prices,

Ellarian said. Wells Fargo economists noted that the headline index only avoided falling into

contraction territory due to wait time as supplier deliveries shot up to 54.5. This was the

broadest indication of wait time since

the supply chain disruption year of 2022, they said. Longer wait times for supplier deliveries

are additive because in normal times, such a development is associated with a factory sector

that cannot keep up with demand. Since that is not an accurate characterization of what is

contributing to wait times today, the expansionary signal from the ISM should, for this month at least, be taken

with a massive grain of salt. Pantyan macroeconomist Oliver Allen says, some of the earlier

increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index from October to January reflected manufacturers hurrying

to complete orders before tariffs

are applied, a rush that now seems to be petering out. The simultaneous market upturned and

several measures of investment plans was a positive sign, but intentions seemed to be flagging

again now in the face of greater uncertainty around trade policy, the Doge cost-cutting drive,

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