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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Spreadsheet disasters

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 11 February 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The UK’s Office for National Statistics recently published some dramatically incorrect data - all because of a spreadsheet slip-up. But that’s just the most recent in a long list of times when spreadsheets have gone wrong, often with costly consequences Stand-up mathematician Matt Parker takes us through a short history of spreadsheet mistakes.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Love, Genessa, a brand new true crime podcast from the BBC World Service and CBC podcasts.

0:07.0

It's a story about love, deceit and survival, and it's available now.

0:12.0

Find out more at the end of this podcast.

0:20.0

Thanks for downloading the More or Less Podcast.

0:23.0

We strive to be the golden thread leading you through the labyrinth of statistics, bringing you out to the surface

0:29.0

into the light of numerical clarity.

0:31.0

Then I'm your statistical Ariadne Tim Harford.

0:36.0

In early January, the UK's Office for National Statistics, known as the ONS,

0:41.0

published data on productivity in the G7, seven rich countries including the UK, Germany, the US and Canada.

0:48.0

With the easing of lockdown restrictions across countries, output per hour worked growth was positive for all G7 nations in 2021.

0:57.0

With the UK experiencing the largest year on year increase, 22%.

1:03.0

Wow, 22%. It sounded like good news for the UK in particular, but also for the other nations,

1:10.0

some of which also experienced double digit increases in productivity growth.

1:15.0

But just 12 days later, the ONS issued a correction.

1:19.0

The previous version suggested that the UK output per hour worked in 2021 had the fastest growth of the G7 countries.

1:26.0

This has now been corrected to the second slowest.

1:30.0

When you looked deeper at the correction, you realised just how big it was.

1:34.0

The UK's productivity didn't grow by 22%, it fell by 1.8%.

1:40.0

And it's a similar story for other G7 nations. Canada's productivity didn't grow by 18%, it went down by 6%.

1:48.0

Italy's wasn't 21%, it was minus 1%. So what on earth went wrong?

1:55.0

The ONS told us that they used Microsoft Excel to calculate the figures that these growth rates are based on,

2:02.0

but they made a critical mistake. They essentially misalligned two columns,

...

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