Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategyist for Morgan Stanley.

And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist for Morgan Stanley.

And on part one of the special edition of the podcast, we'll be talking about the effects of the coronavirus on the US as well as the rest of the global economy.

It's Thursday, June 25th at 9 a.m. in New York.

And it's 2 p.m. in London.

Ellen, you and your team have just released your updated forecast

for the US economy for this year and next.

Maybe a good place to start is, what do you expect

as your base case? And how do you think this compares

relative to other investors you've been speaking to recently? So right now we're

going through a period of pent-up demand that's coming through now that the economy's

opening up and this this coming through now that the economy is opening up and this

is putting us on the sharpest part of that V-shaped recovery that I know we've

discussed on this podcast in the past but we have even more conviction around it now. So this V-shaped

recovery is coming through and it slows a little bit around the fall because we do

have an assumption that second wave of infections is coming through.

That's in line with Matthew Harrison, our biotech analyst's expectation.

Little bit more risk aversion creeps in there.

But then as we get a broadly dispersed vaccine in the spring, we have an inflection and growth.

And that gets us back to pre-Covid levels on the economy by the end of next year.

Now that's really where we are out of consensus,

because consensus is looking for return to pre-Covid levels,

...