Special Episode: How Worrying Are Global Supply Chain Issues?
Thoughts on the Market
Morgan Stanley
4.8 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 13 May 2021
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Labor shortages and inventory constraints are weighing on U.S. manufacturing and shipping. How severe could the impact be to U.S. GDP and multi-industry revenues?
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. |
| 0:03.8 | I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist for Morgan Stanley Research. |
| 0:07.6 | And I'm Robbie Shunker, Equity Research Analyst covering the North American Transportation |
| 0:11.8 | Industry. |
| 0:12.8 | And on this episode of the podcast, we'll be talking about the intersection of consumer |
| 0:16.5 | demand, labor, and pressures on the supply chain. |
| 0:20.1 | It's Thursday, May 13th, at 11 a.m. in New York. |
| 0:24.0 | Ellen, our colleague, Mike Wilson, spoke on Monday about how supply chain issues remain |
| 0:29.8 | a problem for many companies just as demand is picking up. |
| 0:33.6 | And earlier this week, the U.S. Commerce Secretary said that supply chain issues are a significant |
| 0:38.6 | worry when it comes to the economic recovery. |
| 0:41.6 | What's your outlook and how much could supply chain tightness weigh on GDP? |
| 0:45.5 | It's a great question, Robbie, because on one hand, when you've got supply constraints, |
| 0:50.6 | it means that we are going to need to build inventories to alleviate those and inventory |
| 0:56.3 | building can actually contribute to GDP for a time. |
| 0:59.7 | And given these supply constraints, we think it will contribute to GDP for longer than |
| 1:03.7 | expected this year. |
| 1:05.2 | But at the same time, if we just can't build those inventories, then eventually production |
| 1:09.5 | just start to fall. |
| 1:11.0 | And so that does start to affect aggregate demand. |
| 1:13.8 | And depending on how severe it is and how prolonged, you can start to shave off a percentage |
| 1:19.0 | point or more off of GDP growth. |
... |
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