Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sarah Eisen with David Faber. We are live, as always, from post nine of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl Kintania has the morning off.

Coming up this hour, United Airlines CEO, Scott Kirby joins us first on CNBC after the company said it would cut flights to deal

with these surging fuel prices. Plus, Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, with us warning that a recession

is a serious threat even before the disruption from the Iran war. And we'll talk about the latest

red flags in the private credit world as Ares and Apollo limit withdrawals. But David, today I'm focused on a

kind of wonky topic. Oh, really? What's different today than every other day, Sarah? Sorry.

But there's new data on productivity. So I thought it was a good excuse to really dive into productivity

because it is a story that a lot of economists are excited about. So we got the

business productivity 1.8% in Q4. That was a revised number lower. It was only lower because

GDP growth was lower in the fourth quarter, which we kind of knew about already. And that

also meant unit labor costs, wages, basically, the costs that businesses have shot up because of that lower productivity.

However, that's a volatile kind of number. We knew there was a shutdown in the fourth quarter.

If you look overall and smooth it out of what we're getting on productivity, it's a really good

story. So you can look basically at the year as a whole. So we saw basically 2.5% year-over-year increase in Q4.

So for all of 2025, productivity increased 2.2% from the prior year.

And that's better than the 1.7% average rate that we've had over the last 20 years,

and better than the rate of the last decade of 1.9%.

Evercore did a really deep dive into productivity.

They say the best is still ahead because of AI.

And here's a good chart.

It really started during COVID.

I mean, COVID was a positive productivity shock.

...