Somebody Won the Election. Now What?
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 4 November 2020
⏱️ 31 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As we await the U.S. presidential election results, we review the results of the Trump Administration's economic policies to see if Americans are better off financially than they were four years ago.
Topics covered include:
- Why pollsters and election models can be wrong
- Why the state of the economy often drives election outcomes
- What has been the economic impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
- What has been the impact of the U.S. trade war with China
- How have poverty and health insurance costs changed under the Trump Administration
- What has been the growth of federal regulations under the Trump Administration
- How have stocks performed during the Trump Administration
- Why we shouldn't let whoever wins the presidency ruin our life
Thanks to Policygenius and Tempo for sponsoring the episode. Use code David with Tempo for $100 off
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. |
| 0:10.0 | I'm your host David Stein today's episode 320. It's titled Someone |
| 0:16.2 | Won the Election. Now what? Four years ago at the time of the last U.S. presidential election in 2016, I recorded a two-part |
| 0:26.6 | episode. |
| 0:27.8 | One on Tuesday, Election Day, and the next part the following day once the results were known. |
| 0:34.0 | It was episode 137 titled Trump wins. |
| 0:38.0 | Now what? |
| 0:39.0 | I will not be doing a two-part episode. |
| 0:42.0 | This presidential election. |
| 0:44.2 | Today is election day, November 3rd, 2020. |
| 0:49.4 | It has been a combative election season with many, many early voters. |
| 0:56.5 | As it last Friday, 94 million Americans had voted in the election, double the 47 million that did so in 2016. |
| 1:06.0 | There's record turnout, but the results might not be known for days or weeks because a lot of those |
| 1:12.4 | early votes have to be counted. |
| 1:15.5 | In 2016, when Trump won it was a surprise because the various election models such as |
| 1:21.1 | Nate Silver's 538 had Trump at only a 20% probability of winning. |
| 1:28.4 | These models are based on numerous polls. |
| 1:31.1 | All polls ask questions and then wait or adjust the results based on the |
| 1:37.2 | estimates of likely voters. In 2016, pollsters systematically underestimated the number of white males without a college |
| 1:47.1 | degree that would vote. |
| 1:48.9 | Many more voted, and that was enough to push the Electoral College victory to President Trump. |
| 1:54.6 | Polsters believe they have adjusted for that under-estimation this round. |
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