meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Science Quickly

Soccer Goalies Ignore Basic Rule of Probability

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.2639 Ratings

🗓️ 25 August 2014

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

When penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way. Karen Hopkin reports Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Understanding the human body is a team effort. That's where the Yachtel group comes in.

0:05.8

Researchers at Yachtolt have been delving into the secrets of probiotics for 90 years.

0:11.0

Yacold also partners with nature portfolio to advance gut microbiome science through the global grants for gut health, an investigator-led research program.

0:19.6

To learn more about Yachtolt, visit yawcult.co.

0:22.7

.jp. That's Y-A-K-U-L-T.C-O.J-P. When it comes to a guide for your gut, count on Yacult.

0:34.3

This is Scientific Americans' 60-second science. I'm Karen Hopkins. This will just take a minute.

0:40.5

Imagine you're a soccer goalie. Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick. You're crouched in front of the net.

0:46.2

The past three kickers have aimed to your left. So which way do you dive? If you said right,

0:51.6

you'd be in good company. Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction,

0:56.0

world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way.

0:59.3

That's according to a study in the journal Current Biology.

1:01.8

This form of misconception, that a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left,

1:06.1

is also common in casinos, so much so that it's called the gambler's fallacy.

1:10.7

At the roulette

1:11.2

wheel, for example, bedders tend to back black after seeing a run of reds. We're due for

1:16.1

a black, the thinking goes, but in reality the roulette ball is still equally likely to land

1:20.8

on either color. And despite what net minders might think, the same is true for penalty kicks.

1:26.5

In fact, researchers studying 36 years' worth of

1:29.4

World Cup and Euro Cup finals found that the direction of penalty shots is basically a coin flip.

1:35.0

Ah, but if kickers in the next World Cup were to take advantage of the goalie falling for the gambler's

1:39.6

fallacy, they could really get a leg up.

1:47.2

Thanks for the minute.

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Scientific American, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Scientific American and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.