SI91: Disconnect between stock market prices and their expected returns ft. Moritz Seibert

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, News, Business News, Investing

4.8 • 712 Ratings

🗓️ 7 June 2020

⏱️ 44 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Today we discuss the disconnect between stock market prices & their expected returns based on economic data, why current p&l may not reflect the quality of your positions, and the potential role of central banks in the future. Questions we answer include: How do you reduce futures rollover costs? How often should a Trend Follower look at their portfolio? Documentaries mentioned: The Fourth Turning Explained and Prince of the Yen If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:08 - Macro recap from Niels 3:18 - Weekly review of returns 9:07 - Global macro discussion 29:11 - Abhishek: Question 1: How do you reduce the problem of futures rollover costs? 32:37 - Tim: Question 2: How often should you look at your portolio? 35:00 - Karl: Question 3: How many positions should I have open at 0.5% equity risk per trade? 40:38 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their
0:06.3	raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable
0:11.6	and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor
0:16.8	podcast series.
0:24.6	Moritz Sieber and I, Neil's Kastaflarsen, I'm back with this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series,
0:27.7	where each week we give you a raw and honest account
0:30.5	of what it's like to be a rules-based investor.
0:33.1	What news and articles caught our attention,
0:35.5	and of course where we also attempt to answer all of your
0:39.1	questions. Good afternoon, Moritz. How are you doing today? Good afternoon, Niels. How are you?
0:45.2	Rainy weekend, not only a rainy Sunday, it's a completely overcast rainy weekend, so I don't mind
0:50.7	hanging out with you and chatting about the markets.
0:54.7	Absolutely.
0:55.6	Let's do that. And just for everyone's benefit today, it may be a little bit short an episode, but that
1:01.8	is just due to some other things that we have to take into account on today's recording.
1:07.7	But anyways, 2020, keep surprising many investors
1:11.7	and Friday's May jobs report,
1:14.8	which showed a net increase of $2.5 million in the payrolls number
1:19.0	and a 13.3% unemployment rate
1:21.2	versus the consensus of 8.3 million jobs lost
1:25.2	and a 19.5% unemployment rate is just the latest kind of surreal development
1:32.8	in what can only be said is already an unusual year that won't be easily forgotten.
	...

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