SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 22 September 2019
⏱️ 69 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels
04:10 – Weekly review of performance
09:00 – Top tweets
39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?
48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?
52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?
01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:19.5 | Welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Jerry Parker, |
| 0:23.7 | Mort Siebert and I, Niels Karsten, where we'll do our best to bring you into the world of |
| 0:28.3 | rules-based investing by sharing our observations and hard lessons learned over the last few |
| 0:32.9 | decades, hoping that you can avoid making some of our mistakes. |
| 0:38.1 | If you're tuning in for the first time, welcome. |
| 0:40.6 | We love that you're here and we'll do our best to inform |
| 0:43.3 | and perhaps even entertain you about systematic investing during the next hour. |
| 0:48.3 | So this week is a bit different. |
| 0:50.7 | We're actually recording Friday evening. |
| 0:52.6 | So let me start by saying good afternoon to you, Jerry, and good evening, Moritz. Good evening. Good afternoon. |
| 0:58.0 | Hi guys. How are you doing? Very well. Thanks. Very well. Quick review of this week. |
| 1:04.8 | Of course, after last week, which was a tough one, it was a bit of a crude way to start the week with this large spike in energy prices following |
| 1:13.5 | the attack in Saudi Arabia, which of course for many CTAs was against their positioning, |
| 1:20.6 | and which Nomuro and Bloomberg was very quick to point out in an article, I think Monday or tuesday morning um you know about how cta's |
| 1:29.5 | are struggling in september um but as expected i guess they didn't follow up with another article |
| 1:35.4 | a couple of days later um when the markets had sold off again um frankly personally i think |
| 1:42.0 | the performance monday tuesday was pretty flat if you look |
| 1:45.9 | at the days together. |
| 1:47.3 | But of course, we'll dive into more of that a little bit later. |
| 1:51.5 | But nevertheless, I feel that Bloomberg often like to sensationalize these events when |
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