SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 15 November 2025
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston
02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need
04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data
05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend
08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity
10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change
12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds
15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year
20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe
24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently
26:20 - Liberation Day: three consecutive shock days and what CTAs learned
33:40 - Economic trend, price trend and the blurry line with global macro
39:00 - Crisis alpha, convexity and when fundamentals stop mattering
44:50 - The rise of alternatives and why “core” portfolios are changing
48:20 - How the industry can tap private wealth and model portfolios
52:00 - Trend in target retirement funds and the sequence of returns problem
56:40 - Looking ahead, volatility forecasting and next week’s guest
58:25 - Wrap up, disclosures and final reflections
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:27.3 | Welcome up, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Katie Kaminsky and I, Neal's Castro-Arson, |
| 0:29.7 | where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.4 | Katie, it is absolutely wonderful to be back with you this week. How are you doing? What's |
| 0:38.7 | going on in Boston? Good. I mean, it's, you know, we're ticking along here. I mean, |
| 0:43.7 | trends are working well again, so that's exciting. And I can't believe we're already so far into |
| 0:50.8 | the year. I mean, this is amazing. So time flies. I know. Have you had any snow yet? I was close to Boston a couple of weeks ago, |
| 1:01.0 | and I see now that in Montreal, for example, there is snow now. But what about you? |
| 1:06.0 | We missed some of that, but we did have sort of a super cold chill. And ironically, over Veterans Day, |
| 1:13.7 | and, you know, the heat was off in our office and I was wearing my park. So I was like, |
| 1:18.3 | oh my gosh, we're here. It's winter. Yeah. So definitely getting ready for the cold here. |
| 1:24.4 | Yeah, absolutely. We've got a great lineup, as I always say, |
| 1:29.0 | so some important talking points, no doubt. |
| 1:33.4 | But before we do that, I always ask you about what's been on your radar. |
| 1:39.3 | And I know you said, well, I don't really have anything specific. |
| 1:41.7 | But let me mention a few things. |
| 1:44.1 | And what has been on another person's radar that involves you is that my daughter actually |
| 1:48.7 | met you in Boston and she thought you are the coolest and most chill person and very inspiring. |
| 1:55.0 | So I just wanted to publicly acknowledge you for taking time out to see her. |
| 2:01.9 | No, that was awesome. So fun to get to meet your daughter. |
| 2:03.6 | I've heard so much about her over the years, |
... |
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